Thursday, February 19, 2015

Relative importance of Meddling in Who Controls Foreign Nations

IMHO as of now:

Has the US national TV media understood, that by emphasizing one thing, you de-emphasize other things? By overemphasizing the question of who should rule over some foreign nation with a small economy and a small population,  they underemphasize the importance of who should rule over the USA, which group of persons would deliver the government that does the best job of governing the American people.

It's as if, you could be wrong about everything but agree with them re who should rule some foreign nation, and they would love you; and, you could be right about everything but disagree with them re who should rule a foreign nation, and they'd hate you.

Group A, B, C, D, or E could end up in power in nation T.  Conceivably, the cost-benefit from the US perspective, of getting involved in who rules over nation T, could be inferior compared to not getting involved in who rules over nation T.

The US's 'boy' in the game could end up failing to attain to power. "As a man who taketh a dog by the ears, so he that involveth himself in a quarrel not his own" (Proverbs). Getting involved in conflicts creates enemies.  Nations do not like to be bossed over by foreign nations. The time energy and money the US puts into backing A, B, C, D, or E in the contest for power in T, might conceivably produce a better cost-benefit for the US, if put into something else.

If you back A in its quest for power in nation T, but ultimately B wins power in nation T, and A has clashed with B, then your position when B seizes power, will be that B hates you.

For every nation in the world it could said, that the other nations in the world if thinking materialistically, would like to rule over that nation if they could get away with it, if the cost-benefit redounded to their benefit. However, nations normally do not attempt to rule over other nations, because a) they could fail in the attempt; and b) succeeding in the attempt, it could end up blowing up in their face.

These principles hold true both when a nation rules or attempts to rule another nation directly, and also when a nation rules or attempts to rule another nation through a surrogate.

Admittedly sometimes it is in a nation's interest, looking at the cost-benefit and probabilities, to attempt to influence who rules over a foreign nation; however it should not be assumed that such is always the case.

Seems as if the US, having succeeded a few times in meddling in who rules a foreign nation, has developed a mental affliction wherein it is overly confident that meddling in who rules a foreign nation will redound to its benefit.

When nation D attempts install its favorite in nation F, the result is lasting resentment in nation F, directed against nation D. The more D meddles in F's affairs, the greater the resentment.

Events like well-filmed foreign civil wars are exciting and interest to watch on TV. What is forgotten, is that how important a thing is, is not always a certain proportion of how videogenic it is.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Arab Sunni Levantine Young Men Understood in Context

k=1000 (numbers).

IMHO as of now:

In the 'Levant', putting Syria and Iraq together, Sunni Arab males age 20-24 number 955k; and the next class of these four years from now will amount to another 954k. If 'ISIS' is 50k indigenous Syrian/Iraqi Arab Sunni Muslim, then these 50k represent only 5% of the Sunni Arab males age 20-24 in Iraq/Syria.

Hence one can see, that the internet media has been overemphasizing the importance of fighters from outside of Iraq/Syria who travel there to join ISIS, and underestimating the importance of the one million Sunni Arab males age 20-24 in Syria and Iraq combined.

I suspect it would be wise to attempt to understand these million Sunni Arab Levantine men age 20-24 (SALM-20-24). After all the US has spent much time and energy trying to pin the blame for the crimes committed by domestic criminals on the "environment", bad breaks in life poverty, unemployment, defective schooling, etc.

They (SALM-20-24) were born on average in 1993; their fathers or older brothers fought in the 1980-88 Iran vs Iraq War in which 240k Iraqis soldiers were killed & 400k wounded (proportional to the US losing 2.4 million soldiers killed) while $20k per capita damage was caused to Iraq.

USA's Desert Storm killed 30k Iraqi soldiers in 1991 (proportional to the US losing 300k soldiers dead) who were age-group-wise fathers to SALM-20-24.

Iraq was economically sanctioned from 1990-2003, rumor has it this killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

The US invaded and occupied Iraq from 2003-2011, during which time the SALM-20-24 group members were on average age 8-18 years of age.

From 2003-2013 while the SALM-20-24 group was avg age 10-20:  Iraq suffered "extreme unemployment & poverty",  57k Iraqi soldiers & 117k Iraqi civilians were killed, & 4 million Iraqis became refugees (proportional to 570k US soldiers & 1.2 million US residents being killed while 40 million Americans become refugees).

My estimate (as of now) of history of the Wahhabi form of Islam:

I suspect that the better our knowledge of history, the better job we will do when attempting to change history.

The ruler of Diriyah (now suburb of Riyadh capital of S. Arabia) in Najd province of Arabia, Muhammad ibn Saud (died 1765) of the Al-Saud family, invited the first and original Wahabbi religious leader Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab (1703–1792) to join him, and in 1744 when Al-Wahhab was 31 years old, a pact was made between the two; Ibn-Saud supplied the military muscle & Wahhab the religion, and they mutually supported each other.

Adoption of Al-Wahhab's form of Islam, allowed Ibn-Saud to categorize Sunni Muslims of Arabia outside of his Wahhabi Najd area as 2nd class Muslims or non-Muslims deserving of punishment inflicted by Ibn-Saud's followers of Al-Wahhab.

In 1802-1803:  the population of Najd Arabia was 448k; that of non-Najd Arabia was 1152k; Karbala's population was 60k; Ta'if's population was 30k; the Wahhabis massacred the majority of the population of Karbala; Wahhabis massacred the males of Ta'if & enslaved the women and children. These two massacres eliminated 3% of the population of non-Najd Arabia, & enslaved  2.2% of the population of non-Najd Arabia.

From 1901-1912: the population of the Al-Saud Wahhabi dynasty in Najd province of Arabia was 524k, including 106k males age 14-49; the population of Sunni non-Wahhabi Arabia outside of Najd was 2095k including 423k males aged 15-49; the Wahhabis of Najd province waged a successful war of conquest against non-Najd Arabia; during this war, aside from battle deaths, the Wahhabis of Najd executed 40k persons (9% of the non-Najd males aged 15-49), & amputated the limbs of 350k persons (83% of the non-Najd males aged 14-49).

Math Notes

Iraq, population growing at 2.2%/yr. pop 2009, 31.2 million, 32.6 2014;  Arab 77%, Kurds 17%, other 6%. Shia 62, Sunni 34; 51% male. 1.5 million Iraq male population in 20-24 age group, 2014. 

So, of 100: 17 sunni kurds. Of remaining 83 (77 arab + 6 other) approx 17 or 20% would be Sunni, & 80% Shia. Therefore Iraq's population is 15.4% Arab Sunni. Hence there are 231K Iraqi Arab Sunni males in the age 20-24 group; and the next class of 20-24 year-old Iraqi Arab Sunni males will number 236k.

Syria, age distribution males 20-24, 1.2 million 2014. 67% Sunni, 16% Shia, 12% Christian, 5% Druze.  Kurds, 9%, are sunni. 90% of the Sunnis are arabs. Syria 74% Sunni,  16% alawite, 10% Christian, pop 18 million,  Syrian Arabs and indigenous Syriac Arameans 90%, other ethnic groups such as Kurds 9%, Syriacs/Assyrians Armenians, Circassians,  and Syrian Turkmen, Greeks 1%. Population growth rate -0.797% (2012)

So, 1.2 million * (67*90/100) = 724k Sunni Arab Syrian males in age 20-24 group. And, the next class of Syrian male Sunni Arabs age 20-24 could be expected to number 718k.

Monday, February 09, 2015

RE Latest Ukraine Casualty Stats

"German intelligence estimates that the death toll in the southeast of Ukraine has mounted to 50,000 people, ten times the officially announced figure which has repeatedly been cited in the press....German intelligence estimates that the total number of people who have been killed in Ukraine is almost 50,000, including both civilians and the military...The official data is clearly too low, German intelligence sources told a Frankfurt-based newspape...on Saturday, Ukrainian President Poroshenko said that 1,200 combatants and 5,400 civilians have been killed during the conflict". 
-- German Intelligence Estimates Death Toll in Ukraine Ten Times Higher / Sputnik International (Feb 8, 2015)
Often things can be deduced using what incomplete info you have. Following deductions are based on generally known facts combined with the German Intel estimates.

The German intel 10x estimate would mean, 12k soldiers (k=1000), 54k civilians killed in W Ukraine & Novorussia combined over the past year or so. Total 66k killed.

Together, Novorussia's Donetsk and Luhansk constitute 15 percent of Ukraine's population.  W. Ukraine population is 38 million (approx 9.5 million men able to fight); Novorussia population is 7 million (approx 1.75 million men able to fight).

Assuming all the combatant dead were W Ukrainian, 0.13% of the W. Ukrainian men able to fight have been killed; assuming all the combatant dead have been Novorussian, 0.69% of the Novorussian men able to fight have been killed.

Yet the supposedly most knowledgeable commentators, men of the Ukraine area, have been carrying on as if the W. Ukraine or Novorussia or both were having their male populations wiped out by the violence of the past year or so.

Assuming all the civilian dead were W Ukrainian, 0.14% of the Ukrainian people have been killed; assuming all the civilian dead have been Novorussian, 0.77% of their people have been killed.

Yet the supposedly most knowledgeable commentators from Ukraine have been carrying on as if the W Ukraine or the Novorussian or both were genociding each other quickly.

Assuming all the combatant casualties were W Ukrainian aged 20-24, 1.91% of the W Ukrainian men of that age group have been killed; assuming all the combatant casualties have been Novorussian, 10.34% of Novorussian men age 20-24 have been killed.

Assuming the entire total of 66K combatant and civilian deaths hit the Novorussian male age 20-24 group alone, 56.90% of them would have been killed.

Hence it seems the flow of events has been: every death was assumed to be that of a Novorussian combatant age approx 20-24; and then this high rate of death amongst those young Novorussian adult males was assumed to be also hitting all the other groups in the population. This resulted in a general hysterical feeling that both sides were suffering a genocidal level of destruction.

In fact the level of destruction they (Ukraine area) have been suffering has been miniscule compared to what Germany inflicted on Poland 75 years ago.

There are forces hidden amongst the bright lights focusing on death and destruction, that work to keep people alive and uninjured: civilian volunteerism, military volunteerism, professional civilian work, professional humane-style military work.

Apparently these forces have been doing a better than has been portrayed by the most expert of the experts.

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Sunday, February 08, 2015

Sexual Function Enhancement Cocktail

IMHO as of now:

Whipped up Sexual Function Enhancement Cocktail (SFEC)-1 off the bat using ingredients on hand at home (without buying anything new) after studying the matter on the internet:

[%RDA shown for some ingredients, %RDA are naturally derived from substance not vitamin injections into substance]
4T Wheat Germ Oil = 420% RDA Vitamin E
2T Cod Liver Oil= 102% Vit A; 600% Vit D RDA
2T Hemp Oil
1T Raw Cocoa Powder
1 powder-spoon (2/3 T) Barlean's Fruit Powder
3 Glutathione pills
6 Zinc pills
6 Magnesium pills

The oils pills and powders used in SFEC-1 all were in my possession before this first attempt at a SFEC. Thus they all have important purposes above and beyond any attempt at Sexual Function Enhancement (SFE).

The 8T of oils in this SFEC-1 concoction provide about 1000 calories. The cocoa powder, approx 24 cals. The fruit powder 34 cals. By way of comparison organic whole cane sugar, is 1T=45 calories. Sedentary (you get no physical exercise other than that required by normal day-to-day life) males aged 31-50 are presumed to require 2200 calories daily. Hence the SFEC-1 at approx 1100 cals, provides 50% of daily calorie requirement in and of itself, at a low volume of about 2/3 of a cup.

The high calories packed into a low volume produce a distasteful sleepiness and lethargy similar to that experienced after a heavy meal. Hence it becomes habitual to reject consuming SFEC-1 type cocktails.

If one is aware of the fact that a little 2/3rds of a cup dose of SFEC-1 represents a heavy 1100 calorie meal, one can:

 Accept a little lethargy subsequent to taking a dose as a natural part of life; reduce the lethargy by using the dose to substitute for a meal; & feel happy re having consumed the SFEC-1 not bummed out.

One could split the SFEC-1 into several small doses but this would defeat one of the purposes of SFEC-1: Deliberate overdosing with liquid Vitamin E.


Some may see this post as Lewd. By way of contrast, I see mankind plunged into an environment that is different from the environment mankind has experienced for 99% of mankind's existence. This environment contains poisons and imbalances that damage man's health. New methods are appropriate to new challenges. It is appropriate that the environmental forces impairing sexual function be counterattacked using new methods.

IMHO, the efficient optimal method for countering environmental toxins is not frenetic attempts to avoid toxins, but rather the mastery of methods that help the body's immune system to neutralize and expel the toxins.

This post should not be construed as an encouragement of 'perversion' or 'auto-eroticism'. Naturally, man's body becomes more priest-like when he abstains from all sexual activity, and more king-like when he is sexually active. A man without a wife can prepare himself for married life by doing things that will produce competent sexual performance when he is married, without resorting to auto-eroticism.

Yet it could be argued, that 'auto-eroticism' allows the experimenter (whose conscience does not condemn him) to experiment re the problem without irritating a female partner.

Saturday, February 07, 2015

Raspberry-Grapefruit Juice Mix has good qualities

Found a Juice mix that works well. Approximately 7 Parts raspberry Juice To 1 Part Grapefruit Juice. Serve over Ice. The Grapefruit Juice adds the Vitamin C anti-oxidant pep and balances out the candy-like insipidity of the Raspberry Juice. The Raspeberry Juice balances out the sourness of the Grapefruit Juice.

Used 'Simply Grapefruit' brand Grapefruit Juice, & 'Red Jacket' brand Raspberry Juice.

Unthawed Frozen Scallops Cooking Method

Unthawed Frozen Scallops Cooking Method

The internet articles declare that the frozen Scallops before cooking them, as if such was really important. Then they get into controversy re the proper method for thawing the Scallops and how thawing improperly will mess things up. I found that I could get successful results with frozen scallops without thawing them first simply by:

1) Preheat griddle to max heat. Put whole black peppercorns, salt, & unpeeled garlic cloves in griddle.

2) Rub Red Palm Oil (I would have preferred coconut oil but was out of it) & (optional) Tamarind Paste over frozen scallops; grill frozen scallops on indoor griddle 4-7 minutes ( depending on how many minutes they have been at room temperature, how many scallops cooked at once); leave scallops untouched during first minute of grilling; reverse position of the scallops as much as possible and leave still for 2nd minute of grilling; constantly roll scallops around for remainder; turn off heat of griddle; remove from griddle and let sit for 2 minutes before eating.

Total time from Scallops out of fridge to Scallops ready to eat: 6-9 minutes.

Thursday, February 05, 2015

Preliminary Measles Vax Math

IMHO as of now:

Given that one can expect 90% of the population to get Measles when nobody is inoculated against Measles, and 3% of the population to get Measles when everyone is inoculated, a reasonable rough formula deriving percent of people who get measles from percent vaccinated, would be:

Formula A: % Getting Measles = 90- ( 0.87 x (%vaccinated) )

The most pro-vaccine estimate I could find on the internet, was that the Measles infection rate is (Fact B) 67 times higher for the unvaccinated compared to the vaccinated (A 2012 Report declared that there had been no studies done that compared the incidence of the disease vaccinated against amongst the vaccinated compared to the incidence of said disease amongst the unvaccinated).

Given that the Formula A and Fact B are both true (Ratio in fact B adhered to as much as possible): When 10% of the population is vaccinated vs Measles, 77.0% of the unvaccinated, and 1.15% of the vaccinated will get Measles; When 90% of the population gets the Measles Vax, 100% of the unvaccinated, and  2.2% of the vaccinated will get Measles; & when 99% of the population gets the Measles Vax, 100% of the unvaccinated and 2.9% of the vaccinated will get Measles. This contra-indicates the idea that the Measles rate for the unvaccinated declines when the percent of the population that is vaccinated increases.

I estimate 2% of the US population as being in a condition such that they are unable to be vaccinated vs Measles (due to allergies etc). If the vaccination rate vs Measles in a society were to climb from 80% to 95%,  one could suppose that the Measles infection rate amongst the unvaccinated might decline from say, 50% to 25%. That would mean 15% of the population becoming vaccinated against Measles, would result in 0.5% of the population (persons unable to take the Measles Vaccine), coming down with Measles.

The facts show that the infection rate with Measles amongst the 5% or so in the US who are un-vaccinated, cannot be more than approx 600/15,000,000, or 0.004%. If a decline from 95% to 80% in the Measles vaccination rate were to produce a hundred-fold increase in the Measles incidence amongst those unable to be vaccinated against Measles (ya right), the Measles incidence amongst the unvaccinated vs Measles in the US, would  rise from 0.004% to 0.4%, saving 0.396% of the population, persons unable to be vaccinated, from getting Measles.

Should 15% of the population be required to get a Measles Shot, so that 0.4% of the population can avoid getting Measles?

If getting a Measles shot doubles the incidence of diseases as bad as Measles from 10% to 20% amongst the vaccinated, then that would mean if the percent of the population vaccinated against Measles rises from 80-95%, such would involve 1.5% of the population getting some disease as bad as Measles.

Compare that 1.5% to the aforementioned hypothetical  0.4% of the population that would be saved from Measles due to the increase from 80-95% in terms of the total population vaccinated.

Persons who are unable to get the Measles Shot due to things like allergies, can depend on themselves, and resort to practices that reduce their own risk of Measles. They can: build up their immune system; refrain from activities that weaken their immune system; avoid places relatively likely to feature the Measles virus; avoid persons relatively likely to carry the Measles virus.

How do you justify the following attitude: "I don't want to get Measles, but I don't want to get vaccinated, so I demand that you save me from getting Measles, by getting vaccinated instead of me"?