Monday, February 09, 2015

RE Latest Ukraine Casualty Stats

"German intelligence estimates that the death toll in the southeast of Ukraine has mounted to 50,000 people, ten times the officially announced figure which has repeatedly been cited in the press....German intelligence estimates that the total number of people who have been killed in Ukraine is almost 50,000, including both civilians and the military...The official data is clearly too low, German intelligence sources told a Frankfurt-based newspape...on Saturday, Ukrainian President Poroshenko said that 1,200 combatants and 5,400 civilians have been killed during the conflict". 
-- German Intelligence Estimates Death Toll in Ukraine Ten Times Higher / Sputnik International (Feb 8, 2015)
Often things can be deduced using what incomplete info you have. Following deductions are based on generally known facts combined with the German Intel estimates.

The German intel 10x estimate would mean, 12k soldiers (k=1000), 54k civilians killed in W Ukraine & Novorussia combined over the past year or so. Total 66k killed.

Together, Novorussia's Donetsk and Luhansk constitute 15 percent of Ukraine's population.  W. Ukraine population is 38 million (approx 9.5 million men able to fight); Novorussia population is 7 million (approx 1.75 million men able to fight).

Assuming all the combatant dead were W Ukrainian, 0.13% of the W. Ukrainian men able to fight have been killed; assuming all the combatant dead have been Novorussian, 0.69% of the Novorussian men able to fight have been killed.

Yet the supposedly most knowledgeable commentators, men of the Ukraine area, have been carrying on as if the W. Ukraine or Novorussia or both were having their male populations wiped out by the violence of the past year or so.

Assuming all the civilian dead were W Ukrainian, 0.14% of the Ukrainian people have been killed; assuming all the civilian dead have been Novorussian, 0.77% of their people have been killed.

Yet the supposedly most knowledgeable commentators from Ukraine have been carrying on as if the W Ukraine or the Novorussian or both were genociding each other quickly.

Assuming all the combatant casualties were W Ukrainian aged 20-24, 1.91% of the W Ukrainian men of that age group have been killed; assuming all the combatant casualties have been Novorussian, 10.34% of Novorussian men age 20-24 have been killed.

Assuming the entire total of 66K combatant and civilian deaths hit the Novorussian male age 20-24 group alone, 56.90% of them would have been killed.

Hence it seems the flow of events has been: every death was assumed to be that of a Novorussian combatant age approx 20-24; and then this high rate of death amongst those young Novorussian adult males was assumed to be also hitting all the other groups in the population. This resulted in a general hysterical feeling that both sides were suffering a genocidal level of destruction.

In fact the level of destruction they (Ukraine area) have been suffering has been miniscule compared to what Germany inflicted on Poland 75 years ago.

There are forces hidden amongst the bright lights focusing on death and destruction, that work to keep people alive and uninjured: civilian volunteerism, military volunteerism, professional civilian work, professional humane-style military work.

Apparently these forces have been doing a better than has been portrayed by the most expert of the experts.

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