Arab Sunni Levantine Young Men Understood in Context
k=1000 (numbers).
IMHO as of now:
In the 'Levant', putting Syria and Iraq together, Sunni Arab males age 20-24 number 955k; and the next class of these four years from now will amount to another 954k. If 'ISIS' is 50k indigenous Syrian/Iraqi Arab Sunni Muslim, then these 50k represent only 5% of the Sunni Arab males age 20-24 in Iraq/Syria.
Hence one can see, that the internet media has been overemphasizing the importance of fighters from outside of Iraq/Syria who travel there to join ISIS, and underestimating the importance of the one million Sunni Arab males age 20-24 in Syria and Iraq combined.
I suspect it would be wise to attempt to understand these million Sunni Arab Levantine men age 20-24 (SALM-20-24). After all the US has spent much time and energy trying to pin the blame for the crimes committed by domestic criminals on the "environment", bad breaks in life poverty, unemployment, defective schooling, etc.
They (SALM-20-24) were born on average in 1993; their fathers or older brothers fought in the 1980-88 Iran vs Iraq War in which 240k Iraqis soldiers were killed & 400k wounded (proportional to the US losing 2.4 million soldiers killed) while $20k per capita damage was caused to Iraq.
USA's Desert Storm killed 30k Iraqi soldiers in 1991 (proportional to the US losing 300k soldiers dead) who were age-group-wise fathers to SALM-20-24.
Iraq was economically sanctioned from 1990-2003, rumor has it this killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.
The US invaded and occupied Iraq from 2003-2011, during which time the SALM-20-24 group members were on average age 8-18 years of age.
From 2003-2013 while the SALM-20-24 group was avg age 10-20: Iraq suffered "extreme unemployment & poverty", 57k Iraqi soldiers & 117k Iraqi civilians were killed, & 4 million Iraqis became refugees (proportional to 570k US soldiers & 1.2 million US residents being killed while 40 million Americans become refugees).
My estimate (as of now) of history of the Wahhabi form of Islam:
I suspect that the better our knowledge of history, the better job we will do when attempting to change history.
The ruler of Diriyah (now suburb of Riyadh capital of S. Arabia) in Najd province of Arabia, Muhammad ibn Saud (died 1765) of the Al-Saud family, invited the first and original Wahabbi religious leader Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab (1703–1792) to join him, and in 1744 when Al-Wahhab was 31 years old, a pact was made between the two; Ibn-Saud supplied the military muscle & Wahhab the religion, and they mutually supported each other.
Adoption of Al-Wahhab's form of Islam, allowed Ibn-Saud to categorize Sunni Muslims of Arabia outside of his Wahhabi Najd area as 2nd class Muslims or non-Muslims deserving of punishment inflicted by Ibn-Saud's followers of Al-Wahhab.
In 1802-1803: the population of Najd Arabia was 448k; that of non-Najd Arabia was 1152k; Karbala's population was 60k; Ta'if's population was 30k; the Wahhabis massacred the majority of the population of Karbala; Wahhabis massacred the males of Ta'if & enslaved the women and children. These two massacres eliminated 3% of the population of non-Najd Arabia, & enslaved 2.2% of the population of non-Najd Arabia.
From 1901-1912: the population of the Al-Saud Wahhabi dynasty in Najd province of Arabia was 524k, including 106k males age 14-49; the population of Sunni non-Wahhabi Arabia outside of Najd was 2095k including 423k males aged 15-49; the Wahhabis of Najd province waged a successful war of conquest against non-Najd Arabia; during this war, aside from battle deaths, the Wahhabis of Najd executed 40k persons (9% of the non-Najd males aged 15-49), & amputated the limbs of 350k persons (83% of the non-Najd males aged 14-49).
Math Notes
Iraq, population growing at 2.2%/yr. pop 2009, 31.2 million, 32.6 2014; Arab 77%, Kurds 17%, other 6%. Shia 62, Sunni 34; 51% male. 1.5 million Iraq male population in 20-24 age group, 2014.
So, of 100: 17 sunni kurds. Of remaining 83 (77 arab + 6 other) approx 17 or 20% would be Sunni, & 80% Shia. Therefore Iraq's population is 15.4% Arab Sunni. Hence there are 231K Iraqi Arab Sunni males in the age 20-24 group; and the next class of 20-24 year-old Iraqi Arab Sunni males will number 236k.
Syria, age distribution males 20-24, 1.2 million 2014. 67% Sunni, 16% Shia, 12% Christian, 5% Druze. Kurds, 9%, are sunni. 90% of the Sunnis are arabs. Syria 74% Sunni, 16% alawite, 10% Christian, pop 18 million, Syrian Arabs and indigenous Syriac Arameans 90%, other ethnic groups such as Kurds 9%, Syriacs/Assyrians Armenians, Circassians, and Syrian Turkmen, Greeks 1%. Population growth rate -0.797% (2012)
So, 1.2 million * (67*90/100) = 724k Sunni Arab Syrian males in age 20-24 group. And, the next class of Syrian male Sunni Arabs age 20-24 could be expected to number 718k.
IMHO as of now:
In the 'Levant', putting Syria and Iraq together, Sunni Arab males age 20-24 number 955k; and the next class of these four years from now will amount to another 954k. If 'ISIS' is 50k indigenous Syrian/Iraqi Arab Sunni Muslim, then these 50k represent only 5% of the Sunni Arab males age 20-24 in Iraq/Syria.
Hence one can see, that the internet media has been overemphasizing the importance of fighters from outside of Iraq/Syria who travel there to join ISIS, and underestimating the importance of the one million Sunni Arab males age 20-24 in Syria and Iraq combined.
I suspect it would be wise to attempt to understand these million Sunni Arab Levantine men age 20-24 (SALM-20-24). After all the US has spent much time and energy trying to pin the blame for the crimes committed by domestic criminals on the "environment", bad breaks in life poverty, unemployment, defective schooling, etc.
They (SALM-20-24) were born on average in 1993; their fathers or older brothers fought in the 1980-88 Iran vs Iraq War in which 240k Iraqis soldiers were killed & 400k wounded (proportional to the US losing 2.4 million soldiers killed) while $20k per capita damage was caused to Iraq.
USA's Desert Storm killed 30k Iraqi soldiers in 1991 (proportional to the US losing 300k soldiers dead) who were age-group-wise fathers to SALM-20-24.
Iraq was economically sanctioned from 1990-2003, rumor has it this killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.
The US invaded and occupied Iraq from 2003-2011, during which time the SALM-20-24 group members were on average age 8-18 years of age.
From 2003-2013 while the SALM-20-24 group was avg age 10-20: Iraq suffered "extreme unemployment & poverty", 57k Iraqi soldiers & 117k Iraqi civilians were killed, & 4 million Iraqis became refugees (proportional to 570k US soldiers & 1.2 million US residents being killed while 40 million Americans become refugees).
My estimate (as of now) of history of the Wahhabi form of Islam:
I suspect that the better our knowledge of history, the better job we will do when attempting to change history.
The ruler of Diriyah (now suburb of Riyadh capital of S. Arabia) in Najd province of Arabia, Muhammad ibn Saud (died 1765) of the Al-Saud family, invited the first and original Wahabbi religious leader Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab (1703–1792) to join him, and in 1744 when Al-Wahhab was 31 years old, a pact was made between the two; Ibn-Saud supplied the military muscle & Wahhab the religion, and they mutually supported each other.
Adoption of Al-Wahhab's form of Islam, allowed Ibn-Saud to categorize Sunni Muslims of Arabia outside of his Wahhabi Najd area as 2nd class Muslims or non-Muslims deserving of punishment inflicted by Ibn-Saud's followers of Al-Wahhab.
In 1802-1803: the population of Najd Arabia was 448k; that of non-Najd Arabia was 1152k; Karbala's population was 60k; Ta'if's population was 30k; the Wahhabis massacred the majority of the population of Karbala; Wahhabis massacred the males of Ta'if & enslaved the women and children. These two massacres eliminated 3% of the population of non-Najd Arabia, & enslaved 2.2% of the population of non-Najd Arabia.
From 1901-1912: the population of the Al-Saud Wahhabi dynasty in Najd province of Arabia was 524k, including 106k males age 14-49; the population of Sunni non-Wahhabi Arabia outside of Najd was 2095k including 423k males aged 15-49; the Wahhabis of Najd province waged a successful war of conquest against non-Najd Arabia; during this war, aside from battle deaths, the Wahhabis of Najd executed 40k persons (9% of the non-Najd males aged 15-49), & amputated the limbs of 350k persons (83% of the non-Najd males aged 14-49).
Math Notes
Iraq, population growing at 2.2%/yr. pop 2009, 31.2 million, 32.6 2014; Arab 77%, Kurds 17%, other 6%. Shia 62, Sunni 34; 51% male. 1.5 million Iraq male population in 20-24 age group, 2014.
So, of 100: 17 sunni kurds. Of remaining 83 (77 arab + 6 other) approx 17 or 20% would be Sunni, & 80% Shia. Therefore Iraq's population is 15.4% Arab Sunni. Hence there are 231K Iraqi Arab Sunni males in the age 20-24 group; and the next class of 20-24 year-old Iraqi Arab Sunni males will number 236k.
Syria, age distribution males 20-24, 1.2 million 2014. 67% Sunni, 16% Shia, 12% Christian, 5% Druze. Kurds, 9%, are sunni. 90% of the Sunnis are arabs. Syria 74% Sunni, 16% alawite, 10% Christian, pop 18 million, Syrian Arabs and indigenous Syriac Arameans 90%, other ethnic groups such as Kurds 9%, Syriacs/Assyrians Armenians, Circassians, and Syrian Turkmen, Greeks 1%. Population growth rate -0.797% (2012)
So, 1.2 million * (67*90/100) = 724k Sunni Arab Syrian males in age 20-24 group. And, the next class of Syrian male Sunni Arabs age 20-24 could be expected to number 718k.
posted by David Virgil at 10:51 PM
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