Sunday, July 20, 2014

Israel Hamas Gaza 2014 War Notes

For my condensed version of Operation Protective Edge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia see David Virgil's Blog: Israel Gaza attack- Concise Version of Wikipedia article. Updates re this subject will be added to this post.

When this all started my first instinct, was that it looked like Israel was falling into a trap. The Israeli casualties from the rockets were very few. Israel was the party provoked into attacking. The casualties when Israel first entered Gaza with ground troops were low. Hamas knew the targets the Israeli ground attack would aim for, but Israel when invading Gaza did not know the position of the Hamas troops. Israel seemed overconfident. Such overconfidence arises from failing to understand, that the energetic zealous unpaid efforts of volunteers have monetary value. For example, side A may have a billion dollars to spend on its war with side B,  but such could be neutralized if 25,000 persons volunteer 2000 hours each for side B, with each hour valued as being worth $20 of labor. Given the courage zeal and energy of motivated volunteers their efforts could be estimated to be worth more than $20 per hour.


July 22 Notes

1. I have created a page containing  Detailed notes re Israel-Gaza 2014 Casualties.

2. Watching Israel's Tijuana Brass invade Gaza, I thought maybe I could display military prowess without taking sides by way of a competent analysis.

IMHO as of now

The history of the Gaza  invasion July 17-21 shows Israel taking avoidable casualties due to anti-tank RPG hits on jeeps, APCs, and troops. Although Israel-types excel in softwares such as the Iron Dome software, Israel has neglected battlefield software capabilities of the simple type that would deal with things like RPG anti-tank rockets.  These simple software capabilities are needed in order to help the troops involved in battles the Israeli General described as "difficult and complex".

What is needed but is apparently missing:

Software that calculates the probability of taking a hit from weapons such as the RPG-7, at various points in the battlefield, and then illustrates such using color codes on maps. Such software would take into account: the probability of a given weapon being in a given location; the number of weapons that have a given spot on the battlefield in range; the distance of a given spot on the battlefield relative to various weapons on the battlefield; the probability of the given weapon scoring a hit on a target at the given spot, something which is effected by the spot's distance from the weapon; environmental conditions such as wind that increase or decrease hit-probabilities.

All such information combined could result in a map which shows which areas of the battlefield pose what level of danger.

As for the Gazans, the challenge for them is to obfuscate such computer programs, so that such programs do not advantage the Israelis.

See:

RPG-7 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

TRADOC Bulletin 1: Range and Lethality of U.S. and Soviet Anti-Armor Weapons

3. Watching both sides treat the war like a glorious sporting event, I got to thinking about the psychology of it. For every military fatality one of the sides suffers, 100 heroes are created who were not killed but wounded or almost wounded. These heroes are admired by their communities, they enjoy being admired, the combination invigorates the community emotionally. The 100 heroes created for each fatality, psychologically/emotionally outweigh the fatality who appears to be someone who has sleepily passed into a happy domain wherein he is oblivious to all the pain (unintentional rhyme).

Consequently what is required if one is to promote peace, is some mechanism whereby the communities are emotionally fed by something other than war-heroes. Somehow managing to remove admiration of heroism from society is an unrealistically difficult to achieve alternative, an alternative that could damage society more than it helps.

Stats for today:
449 Words
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July 20 Notes

July 18, The Jerusalem Post triumphantly announced that Israeli hackers had brought down the official Hamas Felesteen.ps website on July 17th. July 20th early in the morning however, the Felesteen.ps website was up and running and reporting the destruction of 10 Israeli tanks/APCs since 11:00 PM EST July 19.

JPost:

"Around the same time that IDF ground troops entered Gaza Thursday night, Israeli hackers took down a number of prominent Hamas and Islamic Jihad sites. The sites either crashed or showed error messages. The sites included Hamas' official website, Qudstv.ps, along with Felesteen.ps and Gaza Alan".

-- Israel hacks series of Hamas websites as soldiers enter Gaza | JPost | Israel News (July 18)

Felesteen.ps (my revision of machine-translation from Arabic, I was surprised at how well Arabic translates compared to Russian):

"Al-Qassam Brigades", the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas", has declared that since Sunday morning (11:00 PM Saturday 7/19/2014 EST)  its fighters have blown up ten tanks and armored personnel carriers and the hideouts of Israeli soldiers east of Gaza City and Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, during the process of confronting the occupation forces.

In several communications, military fighters from battalions east of Khan Younis, confirmed that they blew up six "Merkava" tanks () (Israel has 3900 tanks), using improvised explosive devices fitted with large "RRBI Ji" type shells. They added that East of Gaza City, four other tanks were blown up, and the hideouts of Israeli soldier were targetted with Babot explosive devices and Tandom type rockets.

Continuing Palestinian resistance to the progress of the occupation forces in these regions, can be expected to produce significant losses for the occupation forces and stop their progress. The Qassam Brigades website reported that according to its sources, the Commander of the Golani Brigade and three soldiers were being treated in a hospital in Tel Schumer Israel, 18 others in the Perzelaa Hospital, and 19 in the Syroka Military Hospital.

This morning the brigades confirmed  that  a Motorized Israeli infantry unit East of Gaza City, composed of 14 soldiers, attempted a limited penetration.

As of 0530 GMT, 8:30 AM Sunday, The Israeli Occupation's air land and sea aggression has since July 8 caused the death of 371 Palestinian civilians and injured 2800, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

On Thursday evening, July 17,  The occupation forces announced that they would commence military aggression against the Gaza Strip Wilderness in order to strike at tunnels used by the Palestinian resistance.

-- "Al-Qassam Brigades" erupted 10 Israeli tanks | PalestineOnline (Felsteen.ps, July 20)

Israel Gaza attack- Concise Version of Wikipedia article

When 'Alon' from Israel visited Hyde Park in Chicago many moons ago, I got to know him. He was a gentle, relaxed guy. I even visited him amidst the laid-back decor of the apartment he was living in. But he did not know that I was a closet-Christian (of an unfundie type).

When I felt I had to brush up on the latest stone-age (as in Barney Rubble) 'creative anachronisms' (some females never get over the sense of superiority obtained from reaching puberty before male and hence resort to such phrases) in the middle east, I knew the first thing to do was to check the Wikipedia entry on it: Operation Protective Edge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. As usual the article was intimidatingly and verbose, cluttered with: unnecessary transitions between paragraphs,  even a mania for  unnecessary transitions between sentences; unnecessary phrases and words. I felt fatigued and stressed just looking at it. I decided to produce a minimally edited condensed version (see further down) of the Wikipedia article. The number of words in my version is only 19% of the words in the Wikipedia original.

Stats for my condensed version  ('See Also', 'References', and 'External Links' not included):

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10 (1%)operation
10 (1%)fired

Stats for original Wikipedia version  ('See Also', 'References', and 'External Links' not included):

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My Condensed Version of  Operation Protective Edge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

Operation Protective Edge... launched on 8 July 2014...

During the search for...three...teenagers in June 2014, Israeli forces killed ten Palestinians and...(captured) 500 members of Hamas...By 7 July, 100 rockets were fired...at Israeli territory... Israel hit 50 targets in the Gaza Strip,[18] and by 8 July...militants in Gaza had fired...140 rockets within 24 hours... as far north as Hadera, beyond Tel Aviv. Israel's counter-rocket defense system...intercepted... 30...rockets...Israel commenced the...military response on 8 July...Hamas declared that "all Israelis" had become "legitimate targets"...July 8, Hamas offered ceasefire (terms):...end all attacks on Gaza, release those re-arrested...in the West Bank, lift the blockade on Gaza and return to the cease-fire conditions of 2012...On 14 July, Egypt proposed a cease-fire... Israeli government accepted...Hamas...rejected it...(Israel)says Hamas was using... 'human shields';[26]...denied by Hamas.[27]...as of 13 July...1,300 Israeli attacks have occurred, while...800 missiles were fired...into Israel.[28]...

Background

On 23 April 2014, Hamas agreed to a reconciliation deal with the...Palestinian faction, Fatah...Israel announced it would not negotiate...with the new government and...punitive measures...Brigadier General Moti Almoz, the chief spokesman of the Israeli military, said: “We have been instructed...to hit Hamas hard.”[40]...the two men Israel suspects of having kidnapped the teenagers were known members of Hamas...Hamas...congratulated the abductors.[46] Israeli forces killed ten Palestinians... and arrested several hundred more... in the... search for the...teenagers and suppression of Hamas...dubbed Operation Brother's Keeper...... On 30 June, search teams found the bodies of the...missing teenagers...after the funeral of the three...a...Palestinian ...was ...burned alive...by Jewish extremists...(this) led to...rioting in East Jerusalem...(and) Arab villages...[55] and an apology...from... Netanyahu...Israel argues that this attack...is also in reaction to hundreds of rockets and mortar shell launched by Gaza residents ... into Israel during...2012-2014...

Operation Timeline

8 July

IDF...targeted ...the home of senior Hamas member Abdul Rahman Juda, who was using his home as a control...center... Palestinians have confirmed that all homes were called by the IDF prior to bombing, asking residents to please leave.[68]....five armed Palestinians attempted to cross into Israel...resulting in the death of all five...Hamas openly claimed responsibility for rocket fire... a rocket hit Hadera, 28 miles ...north of Tel Aviv, making it the longest range rocket ever shot into Israel...(this) was a Syrian made M302 Rocket...(Israel) had struck 435 targets in Gaza, resulting in the death of at least 23 Palestinians...225 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel and 40...were intercepted... Property damage in Israel totaled ...10 million NIS ($2.9 million):...35 vehicles, 52 buildings, 12 agriculture-related damages...[84]

9 July

IDF:..they had struck...31 tunnels, 60 rocket launching sites, 27 terror sites...11 activity sites... two rockets landed...in Caesarea...(they) were fired at Haifa....Islamic Jihad...Commander...killed in IAF strike on his house...Hamas sent...rockets toward Dimona...they admitted they were attempting to hit the nuclear reactors...Magen David Adom:.. 68 (Israeli) injuries; 59 from shock and nine while running for shelter.[100]...

10 July

...rockets...fired at Tel Aviv, Dimona...in Israel 234 missiles had exploded and 61 rockets had been hit by...Iron Dome... Israel announced that their goal is... to fully dismantle Hamas's infrastructure...

11 July

... missile defense...shot down a rocket over Haifa, the first time a rocket from Gaza reached that far...

12 July

IDF strike targeting Gaza police chief Tayseer Al-Batsah's home killed 21...Hamas convened a news conference to deliver a message that at 21:00 they were about to fire J80 missiles into Central Israel that will challenge the Iron Dome...Iron Dome...intercepted ...three...rockets...the rest fell in open areas. ...Israeli...

13 July 

...Israeli...commandos approached Gaza... resulting in three Palestinian deaths and four IDF soldiers injured.[146] (this)...took out...long-range rocket launchers...those living in Gaza with dual citizenship were given a chance to be escorted by the IDF...to their... embassies... a 30 minute window was given...causing many...to ...remain in Gaza.[149]... number...who left their home was reported at 17,000... 25% of the town's 70,000 residence.[154]...

14 July

 IDF:..MIM-104 Patriot missile to down a (Gazan) drone,...IDF stated...3,000 of the 9,000 rockets in Gaza had been destroyed...

15 July

Netanyahu...fired Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon...for claiming that Hamas "humiliated" Israel ... an Israeli man... injured by a mortar shell...became the first Israeli death...

16 July

Israel...sent pre-recorded messages to...100,000[183] people in Gaza City to leave their homes by 8am...Hamas and the PIJ proposed a ten year truce...terms ...included:

IDF moving their tanks further into Israel from Gaza,
Re-release all prisoners freed in exchange for Gilad Shalit and arrested during Operation Brother's Keeper,
Remove blockage from all borders with the Rafah crossings on UN control,
Establish an airport in Gaza under UN control,
Expand fishing zone to 13 km,
Israel borders with Gaza controlled by the UN,
Israel cannot intervene in the Palestinian unity government, and
Israel must give Gaza residents permission to visit Jerusalem and pray in the Al-Aqsa Mosque...

17 July

Israel agreed to a five-hour...ceasefire... five...hours prior to the ceasefire...IDF sighted 13...Hamas militants emerging from a Gazan tunnel on the Israeli side of the Gaza border...the militants... sustained casualties...(Israel) destroyed the tunnel's exit...3pm, at the end of the...five hour ceasefire, sirens began ringing again in Israel...IDF artillery ...fired hundreds of shells to the northern Gaza strip after ordering ...civilians out...PIJ reported ...that IDF...troops have entered Gaza.... Netanyahu...announced...an...incursion into Gaza.[201] Egypt: Hamas responsible for Israel's ground operation, due to them not accepting theceasefire....Netanyahu:...task is to disable the tunnels...used by Hamas....Israel claims they gave the hospital multiple advance warnings to evacuate ...before attacking a weapons storage facility at the hospital...

18 July

...IDF destroyed the house of PIJ leader Abdullah al-Shami...one Israeli soldier was killed during the 11-day operation...14 militants were killed...13 militants gave themselves up to the IDF...

19 July

nine Palestinians entered Israel via a tunnel, wearing IDF uniforms, carrying weapons, handcuffs, syringes, and sedatives...resulting in the death of all nine...and two IDF soldiers....94 rockets were fired...at Israel, 36 of them shot down

Impact

...prices of food,...have dramatically risen...

Casualties and Losses

318 Palestinians have been killed...76% of those killed were civilians...38 members of armed groups and 12 persons of unknown status (killed). 44 ...were children and 29 women.[11]  1,920 ...wounded ...45% of those injured are women and children...25,000 children...traumatized...81 schools....23 medical facilities...damaged...3,000 homes...partially destroyed by the air strikes... as of 15 July 2014, 72 terrorist operatives, 80 civilians, and 41 unidentified Palestinians have been killed in Gaza.[225]... 9 people killed while watching the World Cup in a cafe...Seven... were killed when they climbed on the roof of their house to act as a human shield...their home was still struck...Human rights groups:...targeting the homes of militia members violates international...law...Rocket and missile attacks from Gaza have...(damaged) Israeli... factories, gas stations, and homes... (Israeli) injuries:...1 seriously, 21 moderately...101 from shock...

Cost

Israel...estimated...operation cost forecasted to... 2.5 billion USD...similar to Operation Cast Lead in 2009 and higher than Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012...if the operation lasts 20 days, the loss in GDP will be 0.4%.[235]

Reactions

...An open letter to BBC director signed by 45,000 people including Noam Chomsky, John Pilger:..."like to remind the BBC that Gaza is under Israeli occupation and siege [and] that Israel is bombing a refugee population"...A photo... shows Israelis...on top of a hill to celebrate ...as they watched...airstrikes...People...brought chairs, sofas, popcorn, and hookahs...[250] The scene was ..."something resembling a party".[251] ...Palestinians in Hebron cheered as Gazan rockets were fired....[252]

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