Emailed college soccer teams performance history
updated 11/19/2013
I have an email that I call the Blue email, that describes a vision I had of an angelic Christian cop whose face I could not see and who had eyes 'as a flame of fire'. I have another email I call the Red email, that contains what I call 'Telekinetic Poetic Prayers' that I wrote.
September 11 2013, I sent the 'Red' email to the Brandeis soccer team, following cc-protocol so as not to be guilty of 'spamming'. September 23 I sent the 'Blue' to the Bentley soccer team.
Feeling goaded to include teams outside of the Boston area, October 1-2, I sent the Blue to Allegheny, Mt St Vincent (NY), Swarthmore, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Denison, and the Staten Island college soccer teams (6 teams).
October 1-2, I sent the Red to these American outside of Boston college soccer teams: Lindenwood, Rowan, Bradley, Southern Poly (GA), and Cornell (5 teams).
October 3-4, I sent the 'Blue' to local college soccer teams: Roxybury CC, Emmanuel, Tufts, U Mass-Boston, Harvard, Emerson, Lasell, & Boston College (7 teams whose performance was recorded relative to predicted).
October 3-4, I sent the 'Red' to local college soccer teams: Curry, Northeastern, Boston University, MIT, Fisher (4 teams whose performance was recorded relative to predicted).
The following decisions were made using a random number generator: Which outside-of Boston teams would be emailed; which outside of Boston teams would get the Red email; which outside of Boston teams would get the Blue email; which Boston area teams would get the Red email; which Boston area teams would get the Blue email. The random number generator produced very streaky results. With both the locals and the Americans, at at first about a half-dozen teams in a row were assigned the Blue email, then most of the remainder were assigned the Red email, based on the numbers generated.
I used the Massey CSOC soccer predictions, to determine for each game played by the emailed teams after they were emailed, how in each game they did compared to how the Massey soccer predictions predicted they would do. For example, if a team was predicted by Massey to lose in a game 3-2, and the team won 4-2, I recorded the team's performance for the game as at +3, because they were predicted to lose by one but won by two.
Looking back at the history:
Phase 1 ('Emancipation Proclamation Phase'):
September 25 - October 2
Huge Success on Boston Front
From Sept 14 to October 1, Red Brandeis did 11 goals better than expected in 5 games, an excellent +2.2/game rate. Brandeis did 4 goals better than predicted against Clark, 3 goals better than predicted against Lasell, and 4 goals better than predicted against Wentworth during this phase, truly an impressive streak.
From Sept 25 to October 2, Blue Bentley did 5 goals better than expected over 3 games, an excellent +1.7/game rate. Bentley did 3 goals better than expected against Le Moyne of Syracuse NY.
Hence, prior to the expansion which involved emailing the rest of the local Boston-area teams and the outside-of-Boston 'American' teams, Brandeis and Bentley were up 16 goals compared to what Massey had predicted for the 8 games they played in (+1.50/game).
Phase 2 ('Sputnik Phase')
October 1-6
Stalemate on Boston Front, Victory on American Front
October 1-4, I emailed the remaining Boston area teams and the American teams. I looked at how these teams performed in the first game after they got the emails, October 1-5.
During their first games (the first game played for each of the 11 American teams), the Americans did 10 goals better than expected over 11 games (+0.91/game) -- #106 ranked Bradley, a Red, did 2 goals better than expected vs #5 ranked Northwestern, upsetting Northwestern 3-2.
In their first games after being emailed (10/2 - 10/6 Sunday), the twelve newly added local teams did zero goals better than expected over 12 games (+0/game)-- Lesley, a red team, did 3 goals better than expected v Wentworth. During this time Brandeis and Bentley were up by 6 goals compared to what had been predicted for 3 games (+2.0/game)-- Red Brandeis did 3 goals better than expected against Case Western and Blue Bentley did 2 goals better than expected against Assumption.
At the end of this phase during which the twelve added locals and Americans played their first games, after games of Sunday October 6 and before October 7, the locals (including Brandeis and Bentley) were up 21 goals over 22 games compared to the scores that had been predicted by Massey (+0.95/game), and the Americans were up 3 goals over 17 games (+0.18/game) (looking only at games played after emails sent).
Phase 3 ('Chicago Fire Phase')
October 7-11
Defeat on Boston Front; Total Collapse on American Front
The next phase was Monday October 7 to Friday October 11. During the games of these days, the local Boston area teams were DOWN 2 goals over 11 games (-0.18/game), they did 2 goals worse than the Massey predictions for what the scores of the games would be; Blue Bentley, did 5 goals worse than expected against St. Michael's.
The American outside-of-Boston-area teams did 6 goals worse than expected over 7 games (-0.86/game) -- Red Bradley slumped after upsetting #5 ranked Northwestern, and did 3 goals worse than expected v Western Illinois; Blue California Polytechnic at San Luis Obispo, did 2 goals worse than expected v Fullerton, and 2 goals worse than expected v Irvine.
After the games of October 11 and immediately prior to the games of October 12: the local Boston area teams that had been emailed, red and blue together, looking at all the games played after they were emailed, had done 19 goals better than the Massey score predictions over 33 games (+0.58/game); and the outside of Boston area American teams, looking at all the games played after they were emailed, had done 3 goals worse than the Massey score predictions over 24 games (-0.13/game);
Phase 4 ('Christopher Columbus Phase')
October 12
Continued Defeat on Boston Front; Resurgence on the American Front
The next phase was the games of Saturday October 12; in division 3 alone, 166 games were played on this day.
On October 12, the locals did 6 goals worse than predicted by the Massey score predictions over 13 games (-0.46/game) -- Emmanuel, a Blue team, did 2 goals worse than predicted v St. Joe's of Maine, and Emerson, another Blue team, did 2 goals worse than expected v Coast Guard. The Americans outside of the Boston area did 4 goals better than expected over 7 games (+1.75/game)-- Rowan, a Red team, did 3 goals better than expected v New Jersey City, & Swarthmore, a Blue team, did 2 goals better than expected v McDaniel College.
Looking at the season in total for the teams that were emailed, looking at only the games played after they had been emailed, the tally after October 12 before the Oct 13 games was: Local teams up by 13 goals compared to Massey score predictions over 46 games (+0.28/game); outside of Boston area American teams up by 1 goals compared to Massey score predictions over 31 games (+0.03/game).
Phase 5 ('Saratoga Phase')
October 13-18
Victory on Both Boston & Local Fronts
The next phase was October 13-18. During this time, the locals were up by 6 goals compared to Massey predictions, over 12 games (+0.50/game)-- #123 ranked Red team Northeastern, did 3 goals better than expected v #47 ranked Delaware, upsetting Delaware 2-0; and, Fisher did 3 goals better than expected vs Randolph-Macon. During this phase, The Americans did 4 goals better than predicted by the Massey score-predictions, over 10 games (+0.40/game)-- Red team Lindenwood did 2 goals better than expected v NE Oklahoma, and Blue Team Staten Island did 2 goals better than expected v Bard.
State of Affairs, October 18, 2013
October 18
Solid Dominance on Both Local and American Fronts
After the games of October 18, and before the many games of Saturday October 19th, the score in total for the season for the emailed teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, was: Local Boston area teams, 19 goals better than expected over 58 (+0.33/game) games; and, outside of Boston area teams, 5 goals better than expected over 41 games (+0.12/game). Putting the locals and the outside of Boston together, in total they were up 24 goals over 99 games, (+0.24 goals per game). I expect that soon I shall break the results down in terms of performance by 'Red' teams compared to performance by 'Blue' teams.
Phase 6 ('Haile Selassie Phase')
Saturday October 19
Defeat on Boston Front, Disaster on American Front
Sirs, anguished by events of October 19th, I have respectfully resolved to henceforth include citation of units that performed honorably in losing efforts, as I humbly suspect that my failure to discharge said duty in fulfillment of my responsibilities as your most obedient servant, contributed to the devastating failures of October 19th.
The next phase was October 19, Saturday. The Boston-area locals were down by 1 goals compared to Massey predictions, over 10 games (-0.10/game).
Red Team Curry did 2 goals worse than predicted by Massey against Endicott; Red team Boston University did 2 goals worse than expected against Lafayette; Blue Team U-Mass Boston did 2 goals worse than expected against Keene State; Blue team Tufts did 1 goal worse than predicted against Williams.
The day on the local front would have been disastrous were it not for: Red team Fisher doing 2 goals better than expected v ME Presque Isle, upsetting ME Presque Isle & winning 5-4; Red Team Lesley beating the spread by 1 goal v Elms College; Red team MIT doing a goal better than expected v Clark; and, #259-ranked Blue team Harvard doing 2 goals better than expected upsetting #132 ranked Brown 2-1.
On the American front, the day was a disaster as our Red & Blue teams did 8 goals worse than predicted by the Massey score-predictions, over 10 games (-0.80/game)-- Blue team Allegeheny did 5 goals worse than expected against Ohio Wesleyan (over 4 games Allegheny has now done 9 goals worse than expected); Red Team Rowan did 4 goals worse than expected against Rutgers-Newark; and, Red team Southern Poly of Marietta GA, did 3 goals worse than expected v Brewton-Parker (I respectfully submit that the Massey prediction that Southern Poly would win 5-1 is questionable).
They day would have been something worse than disastrous were it not for: Blue team Staten Island doing 2 goals better than expected v Brooklyn College; Blue team Swarthmore doing 2 goals better than expected v Dickinson; and, Red team Bradley doing 1 goal better than expected v Loyola-Chicago.
After the disastrous events of Saturday October 19, and before the games of Sunday October 20th, the score in total for the season for the emailed teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, was: Local Boston area teams, 18 goals better than expected over 68 games (+0.26/game); and, outside of Boston area teams, 3 goals worse than expected over 51 games (-0.06/game). Putting the locals and the outside of Boston together, in total they were up 15 goals over 119 games, 0.13 goals per game.
Phase 7 ('Agincourt Phase')
October 20-25
Victory on Boston and American Fronts
The next phase was Sunday October 20 to Friday October 25. Our locals were up by 9 goals compared to Massey predictions, over 11 games (+0.82/game).
Our Red team MIT was a phenomenal 6 goals better than expected v Framingham State; and, our Red team Fisher did 4 goals better than expected by the Massey predictions . Three of our Blue Teams all did much better than expected: U Mass-Boston did 4 goals better than expected against Mass Maritime; Lasell did 3 goals better than expected against Rivier, and Emmanuel did 3 goals better than expected vs Suffolk (Suffolk had told me that there was no access to the email addresses of its students such as its soccer players). These victories all occurred on October 23, the day after my birthday. May I very respectfully suggest, that October 23rd be renamed David Virgil's Boston Soccer Day.
The big successes of the local teams outweighed defeats on the local front during this phase. Amongst our Red teams: Brandeis did 3 goals worse than expected v Emory, Northeastern did 2 goals worse than expected v Hartford. Our Blue team Bentley did 2 goals worse than expected v S New Hampshire.
On the American front, our Red & Blue teams did 6 goals better than predicted by the Massey score-predictions, over the course of 12 games (+0.50/game). Amongst our red teams: our Bradley did 2 goals better than expected v U IL at Edwardsville, our Rowan did 2 goals better than expected vs Keane, our Lindenwood did 1 goal better than expected v Truman State, and our Southern Polytechnic of Marietta GA did 1 goal better than expected v Bethel of Tennessee, tying Bethel 1-1 in double-overtime. Amongst our Blue teams: our Denison did 3 goals better than expected v Oberlin, our Swarthmore did 1 goal better than expected v Washington.
The American successes outweighed the American losses. Amongst Blue teams: our Allegheny did 1 goal worse than expected v Wooster, our Cal Poly SLO did 1 goal worse than expected v U Cal Davis. None of our American Red teams did worse than expected.
After the propitious events of October 20-25, and before the 19 games our Blue and Red teams face on Saturday October 26th, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 27 goals better than expected over 79 games (+0.34/game); and, outside of Boston area American teams, 3 goals better than expected over 63 games (+0.05/game). Putting our Blue or Red locals and the outside of Boston American Blue or Red teams together, in total they were up 30 goals over 142 games, (+0.21 goals per game).
Therefore at this point, we face the Armageddon of 16 games our Blue and Red teams will be involved in on Saturday October 26th, with the confidence of knowing we are over the season 30 goals ahead.
Phase 8 ('Armageddon Phase')
Saturday October 26
Victory on Boston Front Outweighs Defeat on American Front
Sir:
In compliance with the request of the Field Marshal commanding, I have the honor to submit a somewhat detailed report of the operations of our Blue & Red Teams in the games of October 26th Saturday.:
The next phase was Saturday October 26th, with our Red and Blue teams involved in 16 games. I had looked forward to the events of this day with apprehension, knowing that the previous Saturday, over the course of 20 games our teams had done 9 goals worse than expected. However as it turned out, in total our teams in total today did 1 goal better than expected, so as a result after the games of October 26, we now have done 31 goals better than expected with only 47 games remaining for our teams during the regular season. The disaster of the previous Saturday did indeed rematerialize to correspond with my nightmares on the American front; but such was outweighed by our victories on the local front. If we had done 11 goals worse than expected as we did on Saturday October 19 a week ago, we would have faced the remaining 47 games with a cushion of only 19 goals.
On the American front, our blue and red teams in total did 4 goals worse than expected over 8 games (-0.50/game). Looking at our red teams, Lindenwood did 2 goals better than expected v Upper Iowa, however Southern Poly of Marietta GA did 2 goals worse than expected v Martin Methodist, Cornell did 1 goal worse than expected v Brown, & Bradley did 1 goal worse than expected v Drake (in this context I find it worth noting, that Lindenwood was the only team wherein the cc'd players were cc'd at their approximate high school email addresses, because Lindenwood did not have student email addresses available). Amongst the Blue teams, Denison did 2 goals worse than expected v Wabash.
On the local front, our blue and red teams in total did 5 goals better than expected over 11 games (+0.45/game). Looking at our red teams, BU did 2 goals better than expected v Loyola of MD, and MIT did 1 goal better than expected v Springfield, beating Springfield 4-3 in overtime.
Amongst the Blue teams: #316 ranked Harvard did 2 goals better than expected v #138 Princeton, upsetting Princeton 2-1 (thereby avenging Harvard having been replaced by Princeton as the #1 ranked US university); Lasell did 2 goals better than expected v St. Joseph's of Maine; and, Tufts did 1 goal better than expected v Hamilton. This outweighed Blue team Emerson doing 3 goals worse than expected v Clark.
Harvard, Lasell, and BU all did 2 goals better than expected, playing at home in the Boston area, with the weather cloudy and in the low 50s, but feeling like the mid 40s because of the 20 mph winds.
Subsequent to the 19 games of Armageddon October 26, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 32 goals better than expected over 90 games (+0.36/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 1 goal worse than expected over 71 games (+0.01/game). Putting our Blue or Red locals and the outside of Boston American Blue or Red teams together, in total they are now up 31 goals over 161 games, (+0.19 goals per game), with 47 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
Hence the emails sent to the teams, I now approximately account to constitute the equivalent of one extra player on the field for the emailed team for 48 minutes of the 90 minute game.
[Assuming off-hand that an average game is 2-2 in score, each of the 11 players on the field for a team is responsible for 2/11 + 2/11 = 0.36 goals for and against. Since 0.19, our goals up per game compared to Massey predictions average for the season divided by 0.36 = 0.53, (and since 0.53 x 90 = 47) one whole extra player on the field for 47 minutes of the 90 minute game is the estimate].
I have the honor to be, your obedient servant,:
David Virgil Hobbs,:
General, Commanding Red & Blue Teams, Local & American.:
Phase 9 ('Czolgosz Phase')
Sunday October 27 - Friday November 1
Stalemate on Local Boston Area and American Fronts
In obedience to instructions, I have the honor to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following report of the Local and American Blue and Red teams from Sunday, October 27 to Friday November 1.
The next phase was Sunday October 27th, to Friday November 1,
with our Red and Blue teams involved in 18 games (not counting games in which one of our own teams clashed with another one of our own teams, these games are not counted in our scores). The Americans did 1 goal better than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 8 games (+0.12/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 0 goals better than expected over the course of 10 games (+0.00/game). Hence overall, we were 1 goal better than expected over 18 games (+0.06/game).
On the local Boston-area front: Red team Boston University did 3 goals better than expected vs Colgate, beating Colgate 3-0; Red Team Curry did 1 goal better than expected vs Nichols, tying Nichols 0-0; Blue team Bentley did 1 goal better than expected beating St Anselm 3-1; Blue Team Lasell did 1 goal better than expected vs Babson beating Babson 2-1 (Babson was one of the institutions that humiliated your servant by denying him access to student email addresses). It is with respect to this defeat of Babson (the 'Czolgolsz') by Lasell (executioner of 'Czolgolsz'), that this subsection is most humbly entitled.
These successes were balanced out evenly by the following local Boston area failures: Blue team Boston College did 2 goals worse than expected vs Brown losing 2-1; Blue team Bentley did 2 goals worse than expected losing to New Haven 2-1; Red Team Brandeis did 1 goal worse than expected vs Mt Ida winning 1-0, and then did 1 goal worse than expected vs Washington of MO tying the game 0-0.
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: Red team Lindenwood doing a goal better than expected vs Missouri Valley, and then did 3 goals better than expected vs Southwest Baptist. These successes by Lindenwood outweighed the American failures: Blue Team Allegheny did a goal worse than expected vs Oberlin, Blue team Denison did a goal worse than expected vs Ohio Wesleyan, and Red team Rowan did a goal worse than expected vs College of NJ.
With all the teams, the players on the team were cc'd. The only team regarding which the method was to send the emails to the approx high school email addresses of the players, was Lindenwood, because Lindenwood's student email addresses were not accessible (this was time consuming, could not be done also with other teams). Since Lindenwood was emailed, Lindenwood has played in 9 games, done better than predicted in 8 games and as predicted in one game. In total Lindenwood has done 12 goals better than predicted over 9 games, (+1.33/game).
I respectfully submit the hypothesis: the American teams are spread out, not in contact with other teams that were also e-mailed like them; the distances from town to town and home to college in America are large; cc-ing the players at their approximate high school email addresses, might psychologically counteract alienation caused by the American environment; possibly, players perform better when they are cc'd at their approx high school email addresses as opposed to at their exact college email addresses.
Subsequent to the 18 games of October 27-November 1, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 32 goals better than expected over 100 games (+0.32/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 0 goals better than expected over 79 games (+0.00/game). Putting our Blue or Red locals and the outside of Boston American Blue or Red teams together, in total they are now up 32 goals over 179 games, (+0.18 goals per game), with 29 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
The teams seem to be playing as if they know they will come out ahead compared to what has been predicted, if they just hold on and do not lose ground. Perhaps it would be advisable to send one of our many very respectable generals to lecture them regarding the following point: if they do AS predicted in the remaining games, the number of goals by which they did better than predicted PER GAME will decline; such decline continued could bring their record down to the point where the number of goals by which they have done better than predicted as measured per game, becomes STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT.
Phase 10 ('Revenge of Czolgosz Phase')
Saturday November 2
Pyrrhic(?) Defeat on Local and American Fronts
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, I have the honor to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following report of the Local and American Blue and Red teams performance Saturday November 2. In obedience to orders from the commander, our Blue and Red teams marched to their respective positions on November 2, where they were involved in thirteen games:
The Americans (teams outside the Boston area) did 4 goals worse than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 7 games (-0.57/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 3 goals worse than expected over the course of 6 games (-0.50/game). Hence overall, we were 7 goals worse than expected over 13 games (-0.54/game).
On the local Boston-area front: our Blue team Emerson did 4 goals worse than expected vs Babson, thus sealing our fate for the day. In the (immediately preceding) Phase 9 report (see above), I had noted that our blue team Lasell had done 2 goals better than expected vs Babson, and that this same Babson had humiliated your servant by denying him access to student email addresses. The irony is that today the same Babson defeated our Blue team Emerson dramatically, 6-0. If the very respectable commander decrees, I am willing to submit to my just punishment of howsoever many lashes, if my remarks are adjudged to have caused this Emerson disaster.
The Emerson setback was compounded by failures of our Red teams on the Boston front: Boston University did 2 goals worse than expected vs iconic American University, losing 3-1 in Washington DC; and, and Northeastern did 2 goals worse than expected vs College of Charleton.
Our successes, achieved by academically top-ranked universities (I might most respectfully add, the only universities your most obedient servant attended after high school) on the local front were not enough to balance our setbacks: our Red team MIT did 3 goals better than expected vs Worcester Polytechnic Institute, winning 4-0; and, our Blue team Harvard did 2 goals better than expected vs Dartmouth, winning 2-1.
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: Blue team Allegheny as usual did at least worse than expected, doing 2 goals worse than expected v Wittenberg; Blue team Cornell did 1 goal worse than expected losing to Princeton; and our red team Bradley did 2 goals worse than expected vs Missouri State.
Our success on the American front: our #61-ranked Blue team California Polytechnic did 1 goal better than expected vs Cal-State-Sacramento.
Our #344-ranked Blue American team Denison did not do any better than expected according to the Massey predictions, vs #218-ranked Depauw in terms of number of goals differential. However, they succeeded in achieving a tie against a team ranked 126 slots higher than them. I very respectfully submit, that the statistics not taking into account such ties achieved vs higher ranked teams, when determining how well we have done compared to the Massey predictions, might conceivably somewhat possibly be a cause of excess-of-lashes that might be administered to your most respectful and obedient servant.
Subsequent to the 13 games of November 2, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 29 goals better than expected over 106 games (+0.27/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 4 goals worse than expected over 86 games (-0.05/game). Putting our Boston-area local teams and the outside-of-Boston-area American teams together, in total they are now up 25 goals over 192 games, (+0.13 goals per game), with 16 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
Most every cloud has its lash-reducing or lash-eliminating silver-lining. In order to bring us down to having done 0 goals better than expected over the course of the season, the opponents will have to do 1.56 goals better than expected per game over the remaining 16 games. Prior to the events of today November 2, our opponents had to do only 1.10 goals better than expected during the remaining games in order to bring us down to 0 goals better than expected.
Amazing new advances in mathematical science now make it possible, to adjudge what the probability is, that our lead in terms of the 25 goals we have done better than expected, is merely a result of random fluctuation. Unfortunately today's events have edged us closer to the point where the formulas will conclude that there exists a high probability that whatever lead we have, is merely a result of random fluctuations in luck.
Although it indeed appears to be the case, that the production of these reports had coincided with a decline in the performance of our Red and Blue teams, the negative consequences of ceasing to produce these reports would in my judgement outweigh whatever performance advantage would be gained as a result of the elimination of the reports.
I have the honor to be, colonel, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
David Virgil Hobbs,
General, Commanding Red & Blue teams.
Phase 11 ('Akbar at Panipat Phase')
Sunday November 3 - Friday Nov 8
Advance on the Local Front, Stalemate on the American Front
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, I have the honor herewith to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following report of the Local and American Blue and Red teams performance Sunday November 3 - Friday November 8.
But first may I digress to report that the games played by our Red Team Fisher College have now been added to this history. Previously these games were not included in the history, because Fisher was ranked below #1000 and not included in the Massey reports which showed predicted scores for games. But as a result of having performed better than expected, Fisher College, like Captain Nemo's Nautilus, rose from the depths of the sea to the surface where it is reported on. In total over the course of six games, Fisher did 8 goals better than expected (+1.33/game).
In obedience to orders from the commander, our Blue and Red teams marched to their respective positions, where they were involved in eight games:
The Americans (teams outside the Boston area) did 0 goals worse than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 3 games (+0.00/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 3 goals better than expected over the course of 5 games (+0.50/game). Hence overall, we were 3 goals better than expected over 8 games (+0.38/game).
On the local Boston-area front: our Red team Brandeis did 2 goals better than expected vs the University of Chicago; our Blue team Harvard did 2 goals better than expected vs Holy Cross; and our Blue team Boston College did 1 goal better than expected vs Virginia Tech. These successes outweighed our failure: Red team Northeastern did 2 goals worse than expected vs UNC-Wilmington.
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: our Red Team Lindenwood University doing a goal better than expected vs Rogers State, was balanced out by our Blue team Cal Poly at San Luis Obispo, doing a goal worse than expected vs U California at Davis.
Subsequent to the eight games of November 3-8, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 32 goals better than expected over 111 games (+0.29/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 4 goals worse than expected over 89 games (-0.04/game). Putting our Boston-area local teams and the outside-of-Boston-area American teams together, in total they are now up 28 goals over 200 games, (+0.14 goals per game), with 8 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
Some of our teams have entered into previously unscheduled playoff games, the reporting of which I procrastinate for now, due to the delays in receiving data regarding the predicted scores of the games.
I have the honor to be, colonel, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
David Virgil Hobbs,
General, Commanding Red & Blue teams.
Phase 12 ('Two Battalions Continental Marines Phase')
Saturday Nov 9
Advance on the Local Front, Stalemate on the American Front
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, and in compliance with the request of the colonel, I have the honor herewith to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following dispatch describing the high-caliber gallantry of the performance of the recruits of the Local and American Blue and Red teams, that ultimo could be recorded for the juggernautical campaign of Saturday November 9 instant.
In obedience to orders from the honorable commander, upon the consumption of breakfasts superior to mere salt-pork, our Blue and Red teams marched to their respective positions, where they were involved in six games:
The Americans (teams outside the Boston area) did 2 goals better than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 3 games (+0.67/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 2 goals better than expected over the course of 3 games (+0.67/game). Hence overall, we were 4 goals better than expected over 6 games (+0.67/game).
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: Blue team Cornell did 2 goals better than expected vs Dartmouth, beating Dartmouth 1-0; and, our Red Team Bradley, by beating Evansville 2-1, did 1 goal better than expected according to the Massey predictions.
On the local Boston-area front: our #234-ranked Blue Team Harvard continuing its impressive string of doing better than expected, did 3 goals better than expected vs #119-ranked Columbia, beating Columbia 2-0. This more than balanced out our Red Team Boston University doing a goal worse than expected in losing to Bucknell 1-0.
Subsequent to the six games of November 9, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 34 goals better than expected over 114 games (+0.30/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 2 goals worse than expected over 92 games (-0.02/game). Putting our Boston-area local teams and the outside-of-Boston-area American teams together, in total they are now up 32 goals over 206 games, (+0.16 goals per game), with 2 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
The events of November 9th, constituted a valiant attempt by the Americans to climb out of the ignominy of having done worse than expected by the Massey ratings; November 9th, they reduced their deficit from 4 goals worse than expected to 1 goal worse than expected. If Cornell can do 2 goal better than expected Nov `16th vs Columbia, The Americans will have done overall as predicted by the Massey ratings, not worse.
Some of our teams have entered into previously unscheduled playoff games, the reporting of which I procrastinate for now, due to the delays in receiving data regarding the predicted scores of the games.
I have the honor to be, colonel, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
David Virgil Hobbs,
General, Commanding Red & Blue teams.
Phase 13 (Franco Pizarro @ Cajamarca Phase)
Saturday Nov 16
Amazing Last-second Cornell Victory Rescues Americans from Ignominy
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, and in compliance with the request of the colonel, I have the honor herewith to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following dispatch describing the concluding two games of the regular season for our American and Local Red and Blue teams.
In obedience to orders from the honorable commander, two of our Blue teams, local Harvard and American Cornell, after a breakfast devoid of embalmed beef, marched to their respective positions, where they were involved in their last two regular season games.
Our locals concluded their regular season with Blue team Harvard doing 1 goal worse than expected, being whipped by Penn 2-0 (overall, Harvard has done much better than expected this season). Thus our Local Red and Blue team concluded their regular season doing 34 goals better than expected by the Massey predictions, over the course of 114 games (+0.30/game). I for now opine that overall on average for the locals, being emailed with either the red or blue emails, gave them an advantage equivalent to having an extra man on the field for 75 of the 90 minutes of the game.
Our American teams concluded their regular season in bully stunning fashion. Going in to the final game our American teams had done 2 goals worse than expected over the course of 92 regular season games. Our Blue American team Cornell vs Columbia was the last game of the regular season for our American Red and Blue teams. We needed Cornell to do 2 goals better than expected if we were to escape the fate of ending as ignominious Sunday-soldier scalawag yahoos, and end the season with our American teams having done zero goals worse than expected and also zero goals better than expected over the course of the regular season. We needed Cornell to do 3 goals better than expected vs Columbia if we were to end the season with out American teams having done at least 1 goal better than expected according to the Massey predictions.
And as if following a movie script, great Scott!, Cornell came through by doing a jaw-dropping 3 goals better than expected vs Columbia; so that the end total for the Americans over the regular season is 1 goal better than expected over 93 games (+0.01/game).
A thousand spectators watched our gritty Blue team Cornell defeat Columbia at the Charles Berman Field in Ithaca NY, in a night-game that started at 700 PM under the lights, with the temp at 50 degrees and the wind blowing at a steady 10 mph.
With 68 minutes remaining in our regular season for all our teams, Cornell's Vinent Brunetti scored to bring the Americans to being just one goal worse than expected for the season. With 44 minutes remaining Cornell's Ben Feldman scored to make the Americans (Cornell has been one of the eleven teams) even compared to what has been predicted for them over 93 games. And then finally, with just 22 minutes left in our regular season for all our American teams, Cornell's Sebastian Scales scored, to render the final tally for the Americans as having done 1 goal better than expected over 93 games.
Hence we conclude the regular season with our Red and Blue teams local and American, in total, having done 32 goals better than expected over 206 games (+0.16/game); meaning that symbolically I for now calculate, for the Local and the American Red and Blue teams combined, the average impact of being emailed on a team, as having been equal to having an extra player on the field for 40 minutes.
I have an email that I call the Blue email, that describes a vision I had of an angelic Christian cop whose face I could not see and who had eyes 'as a flame of fire'. I have another email I call the Red email, that contains what I call 'Telekinetic Poetic Prayers' that I wrote.
September 11 2013, I sent the 'Red' email to the Brandeis soccer team, following cc-protocol so as not to be guilty of 'spamming'. September 23 I sent the 'Blue' to the Bentley soccer team.
Feeling goaded to include teams outside of the Boston area, October 1-2, I sent the Blue to Allegheny, Mt St Vincent (NY), Swarthmore, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Denison, and the Staten Island college soccer teams (6 teams).
October 1-2, I sent the Red to these American outside of Boston college soccer teams: Lindenwood, Rowan, Bradley, Southern Poly (GA), and Cornell (5 teams).
October 3-4, I sent the 'Blue' to local college soccer teams: Roxybury CC, Emmanuel, Tufts, U Mass-Boston, Harvard, Emerson, Lasell, & Boston College (7 teams whose performance was recorded relative to predicted).
October 3-4, I sent the 'Red' to local college soccer teams: Curry, Northeastern, Boston University, MIT, Fisher (4 teams whose performance was recorded relative to predicted).
The following decisions were made using a random number generator: Which outside-of Boston teams would be emailed; which outside of Boston teams would get the Red email; which outside of Boston teams would get the Blue email; which Boston area teams would get the Red email; which Boston area teams would get the Blue email. The random number generator produced very streaky results. With both the locals and the Americans, at at first about a half-dozen teams in a row were assigned the Blue email, then most of the remainder were assigned the Red email, based on the numbers generated.
I used the Massey CSOC soccer predictions, to determine for each game played by the emailed teams after they were emailed, how in each game they did compared to how the Massey soccer predictions predicted they would do. For example, if a team was predicted by Massey to lose in a game 3-2, and the team won 4-2, I recorded the team's performance for the game as at +3, because they were predicted to lose by one but won by two.
Looking back at the history:
Phase 1 ('Emancipation Proclamation Phase'):
September 25 - October 2
Huge Success on Boston Front
From Sept 14 to October 1, Red Brandeis did 11 goals better than expected in 5 games, an excellent +2.2/game rate. Brandeis did 4 goals better than predicted against Clark, 3 goals better than predicted against Lasell, and 4 goals better than predicted against Wentworth during this phase, truly an impressive streak.
From Sept 25 to October 2, Blue Bentley did 5 goals better than expected over 3 games, an excellent +1.7/game rate. Bentley did 3 goals better than expected against Le Moyne of Syracuse NY.
Hence, prior to the expansion which involved emailing the rest of the local Boston-area teams and the outside-of-Boston 'American' teams, Brandeis and Bentley were up 16 goals compared to what Massey had predicted for the 8 games they played in (+1.50/game).
Phase 2 ('Sputnik Phase')
October 1-6
Stalemate on Boston Front, Victory on American Front
October 1-4, I emailed the remaining Boston area teams and the American teams. I looked at how these teams performed in the first game after they got the emails, October 1-5.
During their first games (the first game played for each of the 11 American teams), the Americans did 10 goals better than expected over 11 games (+0.91/game) -- #106 ranked Bradley, a Red, did 2 goals better than expected vs #5 ranked Northwestern, upsetting Northwestern 3-2.
In their first games after being emailed (10/2 - 10/6 Sunday), the twelve newly added local teams did zero goals better than expected over 12 games (+0/game)-- Lesley, a red team, did 3 goals better than expected v Wentworth. During this time Brandeis and Bentley were up by 6 goals compared to what had been predicted for 3 games (+2.0/game)-- Red Brandeis did 3 goals better than expected against Case Western and Blue Bentley did 2 goals better than expected against Assumption.
At the end of this phase during which the twelve added locals and Americans played their first games, after games of Sunday October 6 and before October 7, the locals (including Brandeis and Bentley) were up 21 goals over 22 games compared to the scores that had been predicted by Massey (+0.95/game), and the Americans were up 3 goals over 17 games (+0.18/game) (looking only at games played after emails sent).
Phase 3 ('Chicago Fire Phase')
October 7-11
Defeat on Boston Front; Total Collapse on American Front
The next phase was Monday October 7 to Friday October 11. During the games of these days, the local Boston area teams were DOWN 2 goals over 11 games (-0.18/game), they did 2 goals worse than the Massey predictions for what the scores of the games would be; Blue Bentley, did 5 goals worse than expected against St. Michael's.
The American outside-of-Boston-area teams did 6 goals worse than expected over 7 games (-0.86/game) -- Red Bradley slumped after upsetting #5 ranked Northwestern, and did 3 goals worse than expected v Western Illinois; Blue California Polytechnic at San Luis Obispo, did 2 goals worse than expected v Fullerton, and 2 goals worse than expected v Irvine.
After the games of October 11 and immediately prior to the games of October 12: the local Boston area teams that had been emailed, red and blue together, looking at all the games played after they were emailed, had done 19 goals better than the Massey score predictions over 33 games (+0.58/game); and the outside of Boston area American teams, looking at all the games played after they were emailed, had done 3 goals worse than the Massey score predictions over 24 games (-0.13/game);
Phase 4 ('Christopher Columbus Phase')
October 12
Continued Defeat on Boston Front; Resurgence on the American Front
The next phase was the games of Saturday October 12; in division 3 alone, 166 games were played on this day.
On October 12, the locals did 6 goals worse than predicted by the Massey score predictions over 13 games (-0.46/game) -- Emmanuel, a Blue team, did 2 goals worse than predicted v St. Joe's of Maine, and Emerson, another Blue team, did 2 goals worse than expected v Coast Guard. The Americans outside of the Boston area did 4 goals better than expected over 7 games (+1.75/game)-- Rowan, a Red team, did 3 goals better than expected v New Jersey City, & Swarthmore, a Blue team, did 2 goals better than expected v McDaniel College.
Looking at the season in total for the teams that were emailed, looking at only the games played after they had been emailed, the tally after October 12 before the Oct 13 games was: Local teams up by 13 goals compared to Massey score predictions over 46 games (+0.28/game); outside of Boston area American teams up by 1 goals compared to Massey score predictions over 31 games (+0.03/game).
Phase 5 ('Saratoga Phase')
October 13-18
Victory on Both Boston & Local Fronts
The next phase was October 13-18. During this time, the locals were up by 6 goals compared to Massey predictions, over 12 games (+0.50/game)-- #123 ranked Red team Northeastern, did 3 goals better than expected v #47 ranked Delaware, upsetting Delaware 2-0; and, Fisher did 3 goals better than expected vs Randolph-Macon. During this phase, The Americans did 4 goals better than predicted by the Massey score-predictions, over 10 games (+0.40/game)-- Red team Lindenwood did 2 goals better than expected v NE Oklahoma, and Blue Team Staten Island did 2 goals better than expected v Bard.
State of Affairs, October 18, 2013
October 18
Solid Dominance on Both Local and American Fronts
After the games of October 18, and before the many games of Saturday October 19th, the score in total for the season for the emailed teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, was: Local Boston area teams, 19 goals better than expected over 58 (+0.33/game) games; and, outside of Boston area teams, 5 goals better than expected over 41 games (+0.12/game). Putting the locals and the outside of Boston together, in total they were up 24 goals over 99 games, (+0.24 goals per game). I expect that soon I shall break the results down in terms of performance by 'Red' teams compared to performance by 'Blue' teams.
Phase 6 ('Haile Selassie Phase')
Saturday October 19
Defeat on Boston Front, Disaster on American Front
Sirs, anguished by events of October 19th, I have respectfully resolved to henceforth include citation of units that performed honorably in losing efforts, as I humbly suspect that my failure to discharge said duty in fulfillment of my responsibilities as your most obedient servant, contributed to the devastating failures of October 19th.
The next phase was October 19, Saturday. The Boston-area locals were down by 1 goals compared to Massey predictions, over 10 games (-0.10/game).
Red Team Curry did 2 goals worse than predicted by Massey against Endicott; Red team Boston University did 2 goals worse than expected against Lafayette; Blue Team U-Mass Boston did 2 goals worse than expected against Keene State; Blue team Tufts did 1 goal worse than predicted against Williams.
The day on the local front would have been disastrous were it not for: Red team Fisher doing 2 goals better than expected v ME Presque Isle, upsetting ME Presque Isle & winning 5-4; Red Team Lesley beating the spread by 1 goal v Elms College; Red team MIT doing a goal better than expected v Clark; and, #259-ranked Blue team Harvard doing 2 goals better than expected upsetting #132 ranked Brown 2-1.
On the American front, the day was a disaster as our Red & Blue teams did 8 goals worse than predicted by the Massey score-predictions, over 10 games (-0.80/game)-- Blue team Allegeheny did 5 goals worse than expected against Ohio Wesleyan (over 4 games Allegheny has now done 9 goals worse than expected); Red Team Rowan did 4 goals worse than expected against Rutgers-Newark; and, Red team Southern Poly of Marietta GA, did 3 goals worse than expected v Brewton-Parker (I respectfully submit that the Massey prediction that Southern Poly would win 5-1 is questionable).
They day would have been something worse than disastrous were it not for: Blue team Staten Island doing 2 goals better than expected v Brooklyn College; Blue team Swarthmore doing 2 goals better than expected v Dickinson; and, Red team Bradley doing 1 goal better than expected v Loyola-Chicago.
After the disastrous events of Saturday October 19, and before the games of Sunday October 20th, the score in total for the season for the emailed teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, was: Local Boston area teams, 18 goals better than expected over 68 games (+0.26/game); and, outside of Boston area teams, 3 goals worse than expected over 51 games (-0.06/game). Putting the locals and the outside of Boston together, in total they were up 15 goals over 119 games, 0.13 goals per game.
Phase 7 ('Agincourt Phase')
October 20-25
Victory on Boston and American Fronts
The next phase was Sunday October 20 to Friday October 25. Our locals were up by 9 goals compared to Massey predictions, over 11 games (+0.82/game).
Our Red team MIT was a phenomenal 6 goals better than expected v Framingham State; and, our Red team Fisher did 4 goals better than expected by the Massey predictions . Three of our Blue Teams all did much better than expected: U Mass-Boston did 4 goals better than expected against Mass Maritime; Lasell did 3 goals better than expected against Rivier, and Emmanuel did 3 goals better than expected vs Suffolk (Suffolk had told me that there was no access to the email addresses of its students such as its soccer players). These victories all occurred on October 23, the day after my birthday. May I very respectfully suggest, that October 23rd be renamed David Virgil's Boston Soccer Day.
The big successes of the local teams outweighed defeats on the local front during this phase. Amongst our Red teams: Brandeis did 3 goals worse than expected v Emory, Northeastern did 2 goals worse than expected v Hartford. Our Blue team Bentley did 2 goals worse than expected v S New Hampshire.
On the American front, our Red & Blue teams did 6 goals better than predicted by the Massey score-predictions, over the course of 12 games (+0.50/game). Amongst our red teams: our Bradley did 2 goals better than expected v U IL at Edwardsville, our Rowan did 2 goals better than expected vs Keane, our Lindenwood did 1 goal better than expected v Truman State, and our Southern Polytechnic of Marietta GA did 1 goal better than expected v Bethel of Tennessee, tying Bethel 1-1 in double-overtime. Amongst our Blue teams: our Denison did 3 goals better than expected v Oberlin, our Swarthmore did 1 goal better than expected v Washington.
The American successes outweighed the American losses. Amongst Blue teams: our Allegheny did 1 goal worse than expected v Wooster, our Cal Poly SLO did 1 goal worse than expected v U Cal Davis. None of our American Red teams did worse than expected.
After the propitious events of October 20-25, and before the 19 games our Blue and Red teams face on Saturday October 26th, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 27 goals better than expected over 79 games (+0.34/game); and, outside of Boston area American teams, 3 goals better than expected over 63 games (+0.05/game). Putting our Blue or Red locals and the outside of Boston American Blue or Red teams together, in total they were up 30 goals over 142 games, (+0.21 goals per game).
Therefore at this point, we face the Armageddon of 16 games our Blue and Red teams will be involved in on Saturday October 26th, with the confidence of knowing we are over the season 30 goals ahead.
Phase 8 ('Armageddon Phase')
Saturday October 26
Victory on Boston Front Outweighs Defeat on American Front
Sir:
In compliance with the request of the Field Marshal commanding, I have the honor to submit a somewhat detailed report of the operations of our Blue & Red Teams in the games of October 26th Saturday.:
The next phase was Saturday October 26th, with our Red and Blue teams involved in 16 games. I had looked forward to the events of this day with apprehension, knowing that the previous Saturday, over the course of 20 games our teams had done 9 goals worse than expected. However as it turned out, in total our teams in total today did 1 goal better than expected, so as a result after the games of October 26, we now have done 31 goals better than expected with only 47 games remaining for our teams during the regular season. The disaster of the previous Saturday did indeed rematerialize to correspond with my nightmares on the American front; but such was outweighed by our victories on the local front. If we had done 11 goals worse than expected as we did on Saturday October 19 a week ago, we would have faced the remaining 47 games with a cushion of only 19 goals.
On the American front, our blue and red teams in total did 4 goals worse than expected over 8 games (-0.50/game). Looking at our red teams, Lindenwood did 2 goals better than expected v Upper Iowa, however Southern Poly of Marietta GA did 2 goals worse than expected v Martin Methodist, Cornell did 1 goal worse than expected v Brown, & Bradley did 1 goal worse than expected v Drake (in this context I find it worth noting, that Lindenwood was the only team wherein the cc'd players were cc'd at their approximate high school email addresses, because Lindenwood did not have student email addresses available). Amongst the Blue teams, Denison did 2 goals worse than expected v Wabash.
On the local front, our blue and red teams in total did 5 goals better than expected over 11 games (+0.45/game). Looking at our red teams, BU did 2 goals better than expected v Loyola of MD, and MIT did 1 goal better than expected v Springfield, beating Springfield 4-3 in overtime.
Amongst the Blue teams: #316 ranked Harvard did 2 goals better than expected v #138 Princeton, upsetting Princeton 2-1 (thereby avenging Harvard having been replaced by Princeton as the #1 ranked US university); Lasell did 2 goals better than expected v St. Joseph's of Maine; and, Tufts did 1 goal better than expected v Hamilton. This outweighed Blue team Emerson doing 3 goals worse than expected v Clark.
Harvard, Lasell, and BU all did 2 goals better than expected, playing at home in the Boston area, with the weather cloudy and in the low 50s, but feeling like the mid 40s because of the 20 mph winds.
Subsequent to the 19 games of Armageddon October 26, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 32 goals better than expected over 90 games (+0.36/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 1 goal worse than expected over 71 games (+0.01/game). Putting our Blue or Red locals and the outside of Boston American Blue or Red teams together, in total they are now up 31 goals over 161 games, (+0.19 goals per game), with 47 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
Hence the emails sent to the teams, I now approximately account to constitute the equivalent of one extra player on the field for the emailed team for 48 minutes of the 90 minute game.
[Assuming off-hand that an average game is 2-2 in score, each of the 11 players on the field for a team is responsible for 2/11 + 2/11 = 0.36 goals for and against. Since 0.19, our goals up per game compared to Massey predictions average for the season divided by 0.36 = 0.53, (and since 0.53 x 90 = 47) one whole extra player on the field for 47 minutes of the 90 minute game is the estimate].
I have the honor to be, your obedient servant,:
David Virgil Hobbs,:
General, Commanding Red & Blue Teams, Local & American.:
Phase 9 ('Czolgosz Phase')
Sunday October 27 - Friday November 1
Stalemate on Local Boston Area and American Fronts
In obedience to instructions, I have the honor to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following report of the Local and American Blue and Red teams from Sunday, October 27 to Friday November 1.
The next phase was Sunday October 27th, to Friday November 1,
with our Red and Blue teams involved in 18 games (not counting games in which one of our own teams clashed with another one of our own teams, these games are not counted in our scores). The Americans did 1 goal better than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 8 games (+0.12/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 0 goals better than expected over the course of 10 games (+0.00/game). Hence overall, we were 1 goal better than expected over 18 games (+0.06/game).
On the local Boston-area front: Red team Boston University did 3 goals better than expected vs Colgate, beating Colgate 3-0; Red Team Curry did 1 goal better than expected vs Nichols, tying Nichols 0-0; Blue team Bentley did 1 goal better than expected beating St Anselm 3-1; Blue Team Lasell did 1 goal better than expected vs Babson beating Babson 2-1 (Babson was one of the institutions that humiliated your servant by denying him access to student email addresses). It is with respect to this defeat of Babson (the 'Czolgolsz') by Lasell (executioner of 'Czolgolsz'), that this subsection is most humbly entitled.
These successes were balanced out evenly by the following local Boston area failures: Blue team Boston College did 2 goals worse than expected vs Brown losing 2-1; Blue team Bentley did 2 goals worse than expected losing to New Haven 2-1; Red Team Brandeis did 1 goal worse than expected vs Mt Ida winning 1-0, and then did 1 goal worse than expected vs Washington of MO tying the game 0-0.
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: Red team Lindenwood doing a goal better than expected vs Missouri Valley, and then did 3 goals better than expected vs Southwest Baptist. These successes by Lindenwood outweighed the American failures: Blue Team Allegheny did a goal worse than expected vs Oberlin, Blue team Denison did a goal worse than expected vs Ohio Wesleyan, and Red team Rowan did a goal worse than expected vs College of NJ.
With all the teams, the players on the team were cc'd. The only team regarding which the method was to send the emails to the approx high school email addresses of the players, was Lindenwood, because Lindenwood's student email addresses were not accessible (this was time consuming, could not be done also with other teams). Since Lindenwood was emailed, Lindenwood has played in 9 games, done better than predicted in 8 games and as predicted in one game. In total Lindenwood has done 12 goals better than predicted over 9 games, (+1.33/game).
I respectfully submit the hypothesis: the American teams are spread out, not in contact with other teams that were also e-mailed like them; the distances from town to town and home to college in America are large; cc-ing the players at their approximate high school email addresses, might psychologically counteract alienation caused by the American environment; possibly, players perform better when they are cc'd at their approx high school email addresses as opposed to at their exact college email addresses.
Subsequent to the 18 games of October 27-November 1, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 32 goals better than expected over 100 games (+0.32/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 0 goals better than expected over 79 games (+0.00/game). Putting our Blue or Red locals and the outside of Boston American Blue or Red teams together, in total they are now up 32 goals over 179 games, (+0.18 goals per game), with 29 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
The teams seem to be playing as if they know they will come out ahead compared to what has been predicted, if they just hold on and do not lose ground. Perhaps it would be advisable to send one of our many very respectable generals to lecture them regarding the following point: if they do AS predicted in the remaining games, the number of goals by which they did better than predicted PER GAME will decline; such decline continued could bring their record down to the point where the number of goals by which they have done better than predicted as measured per game, becomes STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT.
Phase 10 ('Revenge of Czolgosz Phase')
Saturday November 2
Pyrrhic(?) Defeat on Local and American Fronts
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, I have the honor to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following report of the Local and American Blue and Red teams performance Saturday November 2. In obedience to orders from the commander, our Blue and Red teams marched to their respective positions on November 2, where they were involved in thirteen games:
The Americans (teams outside the Boston area) did 4 goals worse than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 7 games (-0.57/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 3 goals worse than expected over the course of 6 games (-0.50/game). Hence overall, we were 7 goals worse than expected over 13 games (-0.54/game).
On the local Boston-area front: our Blue team Emerson did 4 goals worse than expected vs Babson, thus sealing our fate for the day. In the (immediately preceding) Phase 9 report (see above), I had noted that our blue team Lasell had done 2 goals better than expected vs Babson, and that this same Babson had humiliated your servant by denying him access to student email addresses. The irony is that today the same Babson defeated our Blue team Emerson dramatically, 6-0. If the very respectable commander decrees, I am willing to submit to my just punishment of howsoever many lashes, if my remarks are adjudged to have caused this Emerson disaster.
The Emerson setback was compounded by failures of our Red teams on the Boston front: Boston University did 2 goals worse than expected vs iconic American University, losing 3-1 in Washington DC; and, and Northeastern did 2 goals worse than expected vs College of Charleton.
Our successes, achieved by academically top-ranked universities (I might most respectfully add, the only universities your most obedient servant attended after high school) on the local front were not enough to balance our setbacks: our Red team MIT did 3 goals better than expected vs Worcester Polytechnic Institute, winning 4-0; and, our Blue team Harvard did 2 goals better than expected vs Dartmouth, winning 2-1.
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: Blue team Allegheny as usual did at least worse than expected, doing 2 goals worse than expected v Wittenberg; Blue team Cornell did 1 goal worse than expected losing to Princeton; and our red team Bradley did 2 goals worse than expected vs Missouri State.
Our success on the American front: our #61-ranked Blue team California Polytechnic did 1 goal better than expected vs Cal-State-Sacramento.
Our #344-ranked Blue American team Denison did not do any better than expected according to the Massey predictions, vs #218-ranked Depauw in terms of number of goals differential. However, they succeeded in achieving a tie against a team ranked 126 slots higher than them. I very respectfully submit, that the statistics not taking into account such ties achieved vs higher ranked teams, when determining how well we have done compared to the Massey predictions, might conceivably somewhat possibly be a cause of excess-of-lashes that might be administered to your most respectful and obedient servant.
Subsequent to the 13 games of November 2, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 29 goals better than expected over 106 games (+0.27/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 4 goals worse than expected over 86 games (-0.05/game). Putting our Boston-area local teams and the outside-of-Boston-area American teams together, in total they are now up 25 goals over 192 games, (+0.13 goals per game), with 16 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
Most every cloud has its lash-reducing or lash-eliminating silver-lining. In order to bring us down to having done 0 goals better than expected over the course of the season, the opponents will have to do 1.56 goals better than expected per game over the remaining 16 games. Prior to the events of today November 2, our opponents had to do only 1.10 goals better than expected during the remaining games in order to bring us down to 0 goals better than expected.
Amazing new advances in mathematical science now make it possible, to adjudge what the probability is, that our lead in terms of the 25 goals we have done better than expected, is merely a result of random fluctuation. Unfortunately today's events have edged us closer to the point where the formulas will conclude that there exists a high probability that whatever lead we have, is merely a result of random fluctuations in luck.
Although it indeed appears to be the case, that the production of these reports had coincided with a decline in the performance of our Red and Blue teams, the negative consequences of ceasing to produce these reports would in my judgement outweigh whatever performance advantage would be gained as a result of the elimination of the reports.
I have the honor to be, colonel, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
David Virgil Hobbs,
General, Commanding Red & Blue teams.
Phase 11 ('Akbar at Panipat Phase')
Sunday November 3 - Friday Nov 8
Advance on the Local Front, Stalemate on the American Front
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, I have the honor herewith to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following report of the Local and American Blue and Red teams performance Sunday November 3 - Friday November 8.
But first may I digress to report that the games played by our Red Team Fisher College have now been added to this history. Previously these games were not included in the history, because Fisher was ranked below #1000 and not included in the Massey reports which showed predicted scores for games. But as a result of having performed better than expected, Fisher College, like Captain Nemo's Nautilus, rose from the depths of the sea to the surface where it is reported on. In total over the course of six games, Fisher did 8 goals better than expected (+1.33/game).
In obedience to orders from the commander, our Blue and Red teams marched to their respective positions, where they were involved in eight games:
The Americans (teams outside the Boston area) did 0 goals worse than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 3 games (+0.00/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 3 goals better than expected over the course of 5 games (+0.50/game). Hence overall, we were 3 goals better than expected over 8 games (+0.38/game).
On the local Boston-area front: our Red team Brandeis did 2 goals better than expected vs the University of Chicago; our Blue team Harvard did 2 goals better than expected vs Holy Cross; and our Blue team Boston College did 1 goal better than expected vs Virginia Tech. These successes outweighed our failure: Red team Northeastern did 2 goals worse than expected vs UNC-Wilmington.
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: our Red Team Lindenwood University doing a goal better than expected vs Rogers State, was balanced out by our Blue team Cal Poly at San Luis Obispo, doing a goal worse than expected vs U California at Davis.
Subsequent to the eight games of November 3-8, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 32 goals better than expected over 111 games (+0.29/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 4 goals worse than expected over 89 games (-0.04/game). Putting our Boston-area local teams and the outside-of-Boston-area American teams together, in total they are now up 28 goals over 200 games, (+0.14 goals per game), with 8 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
Some of our teams have entered into previously unscheduled playoff games, the reporting of which I procrastinate for now, due to the delays in receiving data regarding the predicted scores of the games.
I have the honor to be, colonel, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
David Virgil Hobbs,
General, Commanding Red & Blue teams.
Phase 12 ('Two Battalions Continental Marines Phase')
Saturday Nov 9
Advance on the Local Front, Stalemate on the American Front
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, and in compliance with the request of the colonel, I have the honor herewith to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following dispatch describing the high-caliber gallantry of the performance of the recruits of the Local and American Blue and Red teams, that ultimo could be recorded for the juggernautical campaign of Saturday November 9 instant.
In obedience to orders from the honorable commander, upon the consumption of breakfasts superior to mere salt-pork, our Blue and Red teams marched to their respective positions, where they were involved in six games:
The Americans (teams outside the Boston area) did 2 goals better than expected according to the Massey predictions over the course of 3 games (+0.67/game), and the locals of the Boston Massachusetts area did 2 goals better than expected over the course of 3 games (+0.67/game). Hence overall, we were 4 goals better than expected over 6 games (+0.67/game).
On the outside-of-Boston-area American front: Blue team Cornell did 2 goals better than expected vs Dartmouth, beating Dartmouth 1-0; and, our Red Team Bradley, by beating Evansville 2-1, did 1 goal better than expected according to the Massey predictions.
On the local Boston-area front: our #234-ranked Blue Team Harvard continuing its impressive string of doing better than expected, did 3 goals better than expected vs #119-ranked Columbia, beating Columbia 2-0. This more than balanced out our Red Team Boston University doing a goal worse than expected in losing to Bucknell 1-0.
Subsequent to the six games of November 9, the score in total for the season for the emailed Blue & Red teams, looking at the games they played after being emailed, has been: Local Boston area teams, 34 goals better than expected over 114 games (+0.30/game); and, outside-of-Boston-area American teams, 2 goals worse than expected over 92 games (-0.02/game). Putting our Boston-area local teams and the outside-of-Boston-area American teams together, in total they are now up 32 goals over 206 games, (+0.16 goals per game), with 2 regular-season games remaining for them to face.
The events of November 9th, constituted a valiant attempt by the Americans to climb out of the ignominy of having done worse than expected by the Massey ratings; November 9th, they reduced their deficit from 4 goals worse than expected to 1 goal worse than expected. If Cornell can do 2 goal better than expected Nov `16th vs Columbia, The Americans will have done overall as predicted by the Massey ratings, not worse.
Some of our teams have entered into previously unscheduled playoff games, the reporting of which I procrastinate for now, due to the delays in receiving data regarding the predicted scores of the games.
I have the honor to be, colonel, very respectfully, your most obedient servant,
David Virgil Hobbs,
General, Commanding Red & Blue teams.
Phase 13 (Franco Pizarro @ Cajamarca Phase)
Saturday Nov 16
Amazing Last-second Cornell Victory Rescues Americans from Ignominy
Colonel:
In obedience to instructions, and in compliance with the request of the colonel, I have the honor herewith to submit to the Honorable Commander, the following dispatch describing the concluding two games of the regular season for our American and Local Red and Blue teams.
In obedience to orders from the honorable commander, two of our Blue teams, local Harvard and American Cornell, after a breakfast devoid of embalmed beef, marched to their respective positions, where they were involved in their last two regular season games.
Our locals concluded their regular season with Blue team Harvard doing 1 goal worse than expected, being whipped by Penn 2-0 (overall, Harvard has done much better than expected this season). Thus our Local Red and Blue team concluded their regular season doing 34 goals better than expected by the Massey predictions, over the course of 114 games (+0.30/game). I for now opine that overall on average for the locals, being emailed with either the red or blue emails, gave them an advantage equivalent to having an extra man on the field for 75 of the 90 minutes of the game.
Our American teams concluded their regular season in bully stunning fashion. Going in to the final game our American teams had done 2 goals worse than expected over the course of 92 regular season games. Our Blue American team Cornell vs Columbia was the last game of the regular season for our American Red and Blue teams. We needed Cornell to do 2 goals better than expected if we were to escape the fate of ending as ignominious Sunday-soldier scalawag yahoos, and end the season with our American teams having done zero goals worse than expected and also zero goals better than expected over the course of the regular season. We needed Cornell to do 3 goals better than expected vs Columbia if we were to end the season with out American teams having done at least 1 goal better than expected according to the Massey predictions.
And as if following a movie script, great Scott!, Cornell came through by doing a jaw-dropping 3 goals better than expected vs Columbia; so that the end total for the Americans over the regular season is 1 goal better than expected over 93 games (+0.01/game).
A thousand spectators watched our gritty Blue team Cornell defeat Columbia at the Charles Berman Field in Ithaca NY, in a night-game that started at 700 PM under the lights, with the temp at 50 degrees and the wind blowing at a steady 10 mph.
With 68 minutes remaining in our regular season for all our teams, Cornell's Vinent Brunetti scored to bring the Americans to being just one goal worse than expected for the season. With 44 minutes remaining Cornell's Ben Feldman scored to make the Americans (Cornell has been one of the eleven teams) even compared to what has been predicted for them over 93 games. And then finally, with just 22 minutes left in our regular season for all our American teams, Cornell's Sebastian Scales scored, to render the final tally for the Americans as having done 1 goal better than expected over 93 games.
Hence we conclude the regular season with our Red and Blue teams local and American, in total, having done 32 goals better than expected over 206 games (+0.16/game); meaning that symbolically I for now calculate, for the Local and the American Red and Blue teams combined, the average impact of being emailed on a team, as having been equal to having an extra player on the field for 40 minutes.
posted by David Virgil at 4:47 AM
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