Tuesday, June 09, 2009

American Indian vs Whites Conflict Level of Intensity relative to population size c. 1835 AD estimated

Joseph Smith Jr (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Smith,_Jr. ), who lived from 1805 to 1844, was the author of the 'Book of Mormon' (http://www.sacred-texts.com/mor/bom.htm , this site has the best version of the Book of Mormon, lots of chapters on one page that you can use the hilite and word search on, the poor website needs money). The main topic of the Book of Mormon is roughly speaking, unrecorded history of war between whites and American Indians prior to the arrival of Columbus etc c. 1492.

So I wanted to be able to visualize in my mind, what the fighting between the American Indians and the US whites was like during the time of Joseph Smith, as I felt this would help me to better understand Mormonism. I wanted to understand the level of conflict from the perspective of a 21st century person.

As usual researching the subject took too much time and energy because of writers having left important information out of the picture in the process of spewing out little nuggets of information. I had to draw together several different sources of info to make several extrapolations in arriving at my estimates regarding what the intensity level of the fighting was like relative to population size of the whites and the American Indians.

I wanted a visual picture that I as a 21st century person could understand, meaning, relative to the modern population of 300 million in the US, what would the annual war casualties be, if the proportion of casualties relative to total US population were to be the same as it was in the days of Joseph Smith, around 1835 AD.

My estimate as of now:

The American Indian violence in the US on average, from 1775-1894, 119 years (estimated US population in 1835 15 million, US native population 1 million), was proportionally speaking in relation to a US population of 300 million something like: US: 300 million population, 3200 killed per year, 3200 wounded per year, 1350 captured per year; American Indians: 20 million population, 7600 killed per year, 7600 wounded per year, 2300 captured per year. Imagine this continuing, year after year for 100 years, and you have some idea regarding the intensity level of the conflict.

In the 20th century, the US did not have war in every year. The US had war in about 20 of those 100 years. If you imagine the 119 years of warfare with the American Indians from 1775 to 1894 as five wars each lasting four years, the casualties in the wars with the American Indians can be looked upon as five wars each lasting four years, with each war on average, involving casualties as follows: 76,000 whites killed; 76,000 whites injured; 32,000 whites captured. American Indians: 180,000 killed; 180,000 injured; 55,000 captured.

Thus one can see that during the 1800s when Joseph Smith lived, the conflict between whites and American Indians was more than a mosquito bite.

Comes a time when we have to give up the childish attitude that violence between American Indians and whites can be understood simply by the amount of persons seen shot during cowboy movies about American Indians on TV.

Proportionally speaking, the violence in the 1800s between Whites and American Indians, in and of itself and aside from the other conflicts of the US, was approximately equal relative to the size of the US society, to US combat deaths in 8 Vietnam wars, or US combat deaths in WW I and WW II combined.

Thus Joseph Smith produced his anti-American-Indian Mormon religion during times involving what must have seemed like unceasing, eternal large-scale warfare involving Whites against American Indians.

At the same time the stats indicate the majority of Whites and American Indians never engaged in violence between Whites and American Indians.

Seems any time there is war and violence, the majority forget about the non-violent majority. Two different groups living peacably side by side, does not make the headlines and get turned into movies as much as two groups fighting.

If a group of people of 20 million (the US population today is 300 million twenty times larger than the US population of 15 million in 1835; , in 1835 the native population in the US is estimated to have been 1 million) suffers 7600 killed in war every year, that means roughly speaking that a male from said group who lives to age 75 has over the course of his lifetime about a 6 percent chance of being killed in war. This would seem to leave plenty of room for persons from the group who are not involved in violence.

My estimate is that respected scholars like Russell Thornton (who wrote a book entitled 'American Indian Holocaust' and is supposed to be the leading authority on American Indian demographics) overestimate the extent to which the American Indian was destroyed by the Whites.

Today in the US population, about ten percent of the Y-dna chromosomes are haplogroup Q, the American Indian haplogroup. Compare that to the American Indian population of one million being 6 percent of the total US population of 15 million non-Indian plus 1 million American Indian in 1835. Despite the most famous and classical period of white vs American Indian conflict, the 'Indian Wars' from 1865 to 1898, the percentage representation of the American Indian population in the US population genetically speaking, seems to have increased.

Sources of Extrapolations

US population c. 1835 AD
http://www.tsl.state.tx.us/ref/abouttx/census.html
Texas state census
US population in 1850 was 23.2 million, 1860 it was 31.4 million; based on this I estimate the US population was 17.2 million in 1840, 12.7 million in 1830, 14.9 million in 1835

US whites killed in conflicts vs American Indians
http://books.google.com/books?id=79IP9HN_VKUC&pg=PT243&lpg=PT243&dq=%22indian+wars%22+killed+wounded+captured&source=bl&ots=r40EKzFPxd&sig=brpnaoNwV9Zf-IJ0vWGvFGrMvm4&hl=en&ei=Kv0tStbLLcuLtgetvsz_Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=24#PPT243,M1
'the Captured', by Zesch, 2005, p 235-6.
19,000 whites were killed due to conflict with American Indians during the 119 years from 1775-1894 according to US Dept of Interior report of 1894. That comes to 160 per year.


US whites wounded in conflicts vs American Indians
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_casualties_of_war
During the 1865-1898 Indian Wars US wounded was about equal to US killed

US whites captured
http://books.google.com/books?id=0RX3xCm9i5cC&pg=PA470&lpg=PA470&dq=%22indian+wars%22+killed+wounded+captured&source=bl&ots=kobI73QMhK&sig=enud3reYGLeSf2Qv9QvUIgSBNtM&hl=en&ei=Kv0tStbLLcuLtgetvsz_Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=43#PPA470,M1
'A Fate worse than death', by Michno, 2007, p 470
1000 Americans captured from 1860-1875, that is 67 per year.

American Indian population in US c. 1835 AD
http://books.google.com/books?id=9iQYSQ9y60MC&pg=PA15&lpg=PA15&dq=%22american+indian+population%22+time-series&source=bl&ots=INOrZJgC1a&sig=hIYG8m8Hr-MRCAqz0t4lS6rdWAA&hl=en&ei=aRsuSpGcBNiLtgeAkvmDDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1#PPA31,M1.
'American Indian Holocaust', by Thornton, 1990, p 31-32
Russell Thornton's (supposed to be the leading scholar on this, I should get a nobel prize for wading through reams of his verbiage to extract this) estimate is that in 1492 when Columbus arrived, what is now the US contained 5 million natives or American Indians; and Canada 2 million; in 1900 the US contained 250,000 American Indians and Canada 100,000; the rate of change from 1492 to 1900 was linear. Thus I (not Thornton)) estimate that in 1835 the American Indian population in the US was 1 million, and the American Indian population of Canada was 400,000.

American Indian haplogroup representation in US population in 2006
http://nitro.biosci.arizona.edu/zdownload/papers/FSI-2006.PDF

American Indians killed
http://books.google.com/books?id=79IP9HN_VKUC&pg=PT243&lpg=PT243&dq=%22indian+wars%22+killed+wounded+captured&source=bl&ots=r40EKzFPxd&sig=brpnaoNwV9Zf-IJ0vWGvFGrMvm4&hl=en&ei=Kv0tStbLLcuLtgetvsz_Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=24#PPT243,M1
'the Captured', by Zesch, 2005, p 235-6
45,000 American Indians were killed in the 119 years from 1775-1894 according to an 1894 US Dept of Interior report. That comes to 380 per year.

American Indians wounded
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_casualties_of_war
During the 1865-1898 Indian Wars US wounded was about equal to US killed; so for now I estimate the same ratio held for American Indians. However Michno reports that during the Snake War (see section below re American Indians captured), 985 American Indians were killed, 209 wounded, and 303 captured.

American Indians captured
http://books.google.com/books?id=5ZExU-tGSz8C&pg=PA345&lpg=PA345&dq=%22indian+wars%22+killed+wounded+captured&source=bl&ots=VRmP2hi6i5&sig=KHxjIrAZ8NrfYqITAUJUAT-YsIU&hl=en&ei=Kv0tStbLLcuLtgetvsz_Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3
'the Deadliest Indian War', by Michno, 2007, p 345
During the Snake War, the American Indians captured was 30% of the American Indians killed.

@2009 David Virgil Hobbs

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